Market review and analysis
BTC has been fluctuating slightly over the weekend as usual, and today it is pushing towards the 110,000 position again. The support level around 107 given in Friday's morning review is actually a normal small support position for a pullback. However, after falling to this position on Friday and Saturday, it did not break down significantly below the 106 level. Instead, there was a slight rebound over the weekend, and today, after a decline on the daily chart, it rebounded back to the 110,000 position. ETH has also reached a small support level in the range of 2450-2520. It hesitated to break the 2450 position over the weekend, with a minimum drop to around 2470, synchronously rebounding with BTC. Many people are now looking at ETH for a catch-up rally while also paying attention to whether BTC will reach a historical high to strengthen the market. In fact, the current BTC market is at a high level. My concern is not that there won't be a pullback or opportunities to enter the market, but rather that the BTC market is at an absolute high, making subsequent operations more difficult. Being in cash is definitely worthwhile now, but whether there will be an altcoin season or a second-tier coin making historical new highs for a catch-up rally is still uncertain. Yesterday, there were some unusual movements in certain altcoins in the market, though they were just individual cases, they still need to be noted. With altcoin movements in the market and BTC and ETH consolidating, we will approach a node in the market, especially with BTC currently in a high-level fluctuation. Over the past month, we have experienced more than once the 110,000 position. The first time around 100,000, the second time around 98,000, which is effectively the third time at 110,000. Whether we can reach the target point this time and then layout depends on when the market can reach it.
Highlights of this week
BTC first pulled back and then rebounded today, showing a small bullish trend. If today does not close as a bearish candlestick at the daily level, then there will be another push tomorrow. It just depends on the strength of the upward movement, which is around the 110,000 position, and there won't be a larger increase. At this high level, most of the market participants will expect a bullish move to the 120,000-130,000 range. If today closes as a bearish candlestick, especially an entity bearish candlestick, then this fluctuation in the market will soon come to an end. This week, we will face a breakdown below the 106,000 position, leading the market to a downtrend, breaking below the 100,000 level. It depends on whether this week can reach that point or if it will be reached next week. There is still more than half a month left in July, so don’t be too anxious; just be a little patient.
Today's trend of ETH cannot be considered a catch-up rally; it raises some concerns about ETH's recent catch-up. In the current phase of the trend, the second-tier coin is still in a weak phase. Last week, it did not stabilize after pushing above 2600. Today, it again followed BTC's pullback and rebound near the 2600 level. According to the current trend, the 2600-2650 range is currently the resistance level for ETH. However, if you are worried about the second-tier coin's catch-up, you can pay attention to BTC's trend today. If BTC continues to close bullish and pushes up, the second-tier coin may not catch up but will follow suit. However, the strength won't be significant, likely in the 2600-2700 range. Similarly, if BTC closes bearish today, then ETH will also experience a weak decline in subsequent trends, and the decline will be amplified. This is the result of the weakness of the second-tier coin. Compared to BTC's support near 106,000, the second-tier coin's support is around 2450. Once it falls below this position, it will directly go to the 2200-2300 range compared to BTC's 100,000-102,000 range. If BTC falls below 100,000, the second-tier coin will directly fall below the 2000 level or touch near 2000 without breaking below.
Recently, altcoins have not received much attention. The current market trend can still allow for some selection of quality altcoins. Currently, I am focusing on UNI, DOGE, LINK, etc. In this round, I will give up many altcoins but will choose some good layouts. Of course, this is not the time to layout; just wait for a suitable opportunity to enter the market.
