#长期持有策略 Many people fantasize about achieving "selling at the peak of a bull market and buying at the bottom of a bear market" in the cryptocurrency world, but this idea itself has logical flaws. The definitions of bull and bear markets are always results that can only be determined retrospectively; while in the midst of a cycle, no one can accurately predict market turning points.

Using fixed values (such as "100,000 is the bull peak, 70,000 is the bear bottom") to apply to future market conditions is essentially a futile endeavor — the extreme volatility of the market often exceeds expectations, and those who profit from such "strategies" are mostly just lucky.

In the market, you can only control two things: when to buy, when to sell, and the position size. As for price trends, they are never determined by personal will.

Looking back in hindsight seems clear (for example, now looking back at "100,000 should have been sold"), but at that particular moment, you could not judge whether the future would drop to 50,000 or rise to 200,000. Therefore, the concept of "selling in bull markets and buying in bear markets" is fundamentally flawed — cognitive biases can lead to distorted actions, ultimately making it difficult to profit.