Block-1625
In 2011, a16z founder Marc Andreessen published an article titled 'Software is Eating the World' in the Wall Street Journal, with the core argument that software is changing the world at an unprecedented speed and scale.
Over the past decade, we have witnessed the rapid development of the internet, giving birth to a number of companies with market values exceeding $100 billion. Even now, this statement remains valid, as AI has begun to change the world in new ways. Some have even suggested that AI is eating software, but it seems that everything started from 2011, as the social media platforms we commonly use, like Weibo and WeChat, erupted that year.
Now, more than a decade after the birth of blockchain technology, we are finally witnessing the beginning of 'blockchain is eating the world,' and this beginning is the realization of tokenization in the U.S. stock market.
Although U.S. stock tokenization is no longer a novelty, and was partly realized in the defunct FTX, the players entering the market now are no longer just pure crypto companies, but well-known internet firms like Robinhood.
Last week, Robinhood announced the launch of stock token trading services based on the Arbitrum network in Europe, and tokenized shares of some private companies, including OpenAI and SpaceX. This news caused a huge stir in the financial community and helped push Robinhood's stock price to a historic high.
Currently, the total market capitalization of the entire crypto market is about $3.4 trillion, while the total market capitalization of the global stock market is about $135 trillion, a difference of nearly 40 times.
Conversely, the ultimate ceiling for stock tokenization is $135 trillion, and as long as that market capitalization continues to grow, the ceiling will also be opened.
However, the current market share may be less than 0.1%. It will be considered a true explosive growth for the industry when it breaks through 3%.
This is the future that these emerging trading companies are targeting, and it is also the true growth point of blockchain.
If this logic holds and is realized, then the impact of blockchain and cryptocurrency will be no less than that of 'software eating the world.'
It can be expected that the next 1-2 years will be a period of explosive growth in this field, with more companies entering the market, which will also compel some traditional stock service companies (TradFi) to transform. The door to this trend has already been opened.
But is stock tokenization the endpoint of blockchain? I believe this is just an important step.
At the end of last year, MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor released a proposal titled 'The Framework, Principles, and Opportunities for U.S. Digital Assets,' in which he forecasts that the global digital capital market is expected to grow from $20 trillion to $280 trillion, and the digital asset market (excluding Bitcoin) could grow from $1 trillion to $59 trillion.
Currently, there are three significant turning points in front of us: one is the global pursuit of stablecoins, whether in the West or the East; the second is the continuous growth of the on-chain scale of government bonds and money market funds, commonly referred to as RWA; and the third is the beginning of stock tokenization.
The ultimate scale mentioned by Michael Saylor is the market for all these assets once they are on-chain, and the potential arrival of true 'everything on-chain'—after all, this term has been mentioned for several years, from the bustling STO in 2018 to the current RWA and stock tokenization, we have finally reached a critical point. Although the journey remains long and full of challenges, it is already on the way.
Although these data may seem far-fetched now, it is similar to claiming ten years ago that Bitcoin would reach $100,000—equally dramatic and absurd. Now it has reached $110,000 and continues to set historical highs.
In the foreseeable future, we can see that blockchain is reshaping the presentation of assets and the method of value transfer. Whether it will reshape the way information is communicated remains to be seen; while AI is reshaping the way information is captured and bringing about productivity changes, the technology tree is at the verge of an explosion.
Coincidentally, both technologies have been lurking for over ten years, from being overlooked to being filled with bubbles, and then to value reshaping—perhaps it is time to unleash that 'monster.'
So, who will be the next big player to enter stock tokenization? We shall wait and see.
