Current Price $TON : $2.83 (+2.90% in 24h).

Recommendations:

- Short-term Traders:

  • Buy on rebounds at $2.95 with SL at $2.85.

  • Take partial profits at $3.20.

- Long-term Investors:

  • Accumulate in support zones ($2.70-$2.80) if TON ecosystem strength is confirmed.

  • Monitor news about official partnerships in the Emirates.

Key Indicators:

- Bollinger Bands:

  • Price near the middle band ($2.875), suggesting neutrality. Resistance at $3.040 (upper band).

- MACD: Bearish signal (-0.013), but with possible reversal if the crossover turns positive.

- RSI (14): 38.68 (neutral), far from overbought (>70).

- Moving Averages:

  • SMA 50 ($3.03) and SMA 200 ($3.76) act as key resistances. A close above these would confirm an upward trend.

Recent Patterns:

  • Descending Triangle Breakout: Broke resistance at $3.00 with high volume (+525% in derivatives), next target at $3.25.

  • Supports: $2.720 (24h low) and $2.95 (retest post-breakout).

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2. Fundamental Analysis with Recent News

Bullish Catalyst:

- "Golden Visa" Program in #emirates :

  • Investment of $100K in staking $TON for 3 years + $35K fee to obtain residency.

  • Price rose 12% post-announcement, 24h volume +250%.

  • Controversies: Doubts about official government support. Some see it as a marketing strategy.

Adoption and Ecosystem:

  • Integration with Telegram and focus on payments/Web3 could drive long-term demand.

  • Competition with other Layer 1 (Solana, Ethereum) is a risk to monitor.

Price Predictions:

  • Short Term (July 2025): Correction expectations at $2.14 (-24.6%) according to CoinCodex.

  • Medium Term (2026-2030): Bullish forecast, with potential ROI of +172% in 2026.

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3. Risk Management and Strategies

Possible Scenarios:

1. Bullish (if it stays above $3.00):

- Target: $3.25 (June resistance) and $3.55 (if it surpasses EMA 200).

- Trigger: Confirmation of sustained volume and positive adoption news.

2. Bearish (if it loses $2.72):

- Possible drop to $2.50 (psychological support).

- Trigger: PT post-Golden Visa or regulatory rejection.

Key Risks:

- Volatility from News: Any negative clarification regarding the Golden Visa could lead to massive sell-offs.

- Regulatory: TON staking is not officially endorsed by the Emirates, which could limit its impact.

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4. Conclusion

$TON combines a technical breakout with fundamental catalysts (Golden Visa), but requires active risk management due to its high volatility. Key for July 2025:

- Confirm support at $2.95 and volume on rallies.

- Monitor regulatory news and adoption on Telegram.