**“Bitcoin Active Supply Drops 17% — Here’s What Happened the Last Time”**
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**Bitcoin's active supply — the amount of BTC moved in the past 1 to 2 years — has dropped by 17%, reaching levels not seen since previous bull cycles.** And historically, when this metric plunges, **something big tends to follow.**
This time, long-term holders (LTHs) appear to be tightening their grip, reducing sell-side pressure and potentially setting the stage for a major price move.
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### 🔍 What Does "Active Supply" Mean?
The **active supply** tracks how much Bitcoin has been moved recently. A decline signals that more coins are **sitting idle**, often in cold storage or long-term wallets.
This behavior typically aligns with:
* **Accumulation by whales or institutions**
* **Increased conviction in BTC's long-term price**
* **Lower available liquidity on exchanges**
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### 📈 What Happened Last Time?
During past cycles:
* A **drop in active supply** preceded the **2020–2021 bull run**, where BTC soared from \~\$10K to over \$60K.
* Similar drops occurred in 2012 and 2016 — both times followed by **massive price rallies within months**.
If history rhymes, this could mark the **early phase of a major upward move**, especially with Bitcoin ETF inflows and halving supply shocks aligning.
🧠 Analyst View
Analysts argue this trend reflects **increasing investor maturity** — fewer weak hands, more strategic holders. Coupled with rising on-chain metrics and declining exchange reserves, the macro outlook for Bitcoin appears bullish.
However, some caution that low active supply also means **higher volatility**, especially if sudden whale movements trigger panic buying or selling.
📌 Bottom Line
A 17% drop in Bitcoin’s active supply suggests **holders are locking in for the long haul** — a historical precursor to significant price appreciation.
**If history repeats, the next major rally could be closer than many expect.**
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