In 2025, each time the Stochastic RSI indicator on the daily frame exits the overbought zone, XRP's price recorded an average drop of up to 25%. Currently, a similar pattern is gradually forming in July, raising concerns that a new correction may occur soon in the next few days or weeks.
XRP previously declined from 12% to 45% in earlier cycles
The Stochastic RSI is an indicator that measures momentum by comparing the current RSI value of an asset with its nearest range of fluctuation. On the daily chart of XRP, this indicator has exceeded the overbought threshold (above 80) since June 28 and remains in this zone, indicating that the market is in a state of high excitement.
Historical data shows that XRP often records strong reversals whenever the Stochastic RSI returns to the neutral zone. In 2025, each time this signal appears, it leads to significant corrections, with a fluctuation range from 12% to 45%, averaging over 25%.
Currently, the technical structure of XRP is signaling the risk of a deeper correction — unless the market experiences a clear breakout strong enough to eliminate the weakening signal that is forming.
The risk of a 50–70% decline still exists
After an impressive breakout, XRP is gradually entering a consolidation phase within the framework of a descending triangle - a technical structure that often implies negativity. According to analysis, the current target adjustment area is around the $1.14 mark, equivalent to a nearly 50% decrease from the current price.
Technical analyst Xanrox even issued a warning about a deeper correction, based on a rising triangle pattern that has persisted for many years - a pattern that has dominated XRP's price trend since 2017.
The highlight of Xanrox's analysis is the Fair Value Gap (FVG) formed during the sharp increase earlier this year. According to him, such imbalance areas tend to be 'filled' quickly when the market turns around to correct.
Based on this model, Xanrox predicts that XRP may repeat the correction scenario after the spike to $3.40 back in 2025, with a deep decline target approaching the lower trend line of the triangle - around $0.60, equivalent to a decrease of about 70% from the current price area.
Some experts remain optimistic
However, not all experts share a pessimistic view. According to analysis from Mikybull Crypto, XRP is forming a symmetrical triangle - a technical signal that often indicates a strong breakout potential - with a price target set at $3.70 by September. Meanwhile, XForceGlobal is even more optimistic, predicting that XRP could reach a price range of $8 to $27, based on resistance levels established by Fibonacci tools.
In addition, some other analysts also noted positive signals from XRP breaking the descending wedge pattern, combined with accumulation signs from whale wallets - a factor that could push the price of this coin up to around $3.20 in the near future.