Preface:
In the blink of an eye, half of 2025 has passed.
As in previous years, I still want to summarize the first half of the year using data, from scale and capital flow to yield performance.
Reviewing the outstanding ETFs in the first half of 2025 also helps find investment inspiration for the second half.
I hope this review can help you clarify your thoughts and seize the direction.
Data indicates:
Note 1: Due to the scarcity of data collection tools for US stock ETFs, the data has already switched to July 3rd during the writing of the article.
Thus, all data below is based on data as of July 3, 2025; the statistics have about a three-day lag from the first half of 2025, but the difference is not significant and generally does not affect the final conclusions.
Note 2: All data in this article is sourced from tradingview, but some of tradingview's data collection logic may differ from general website logic.
For example, even if an ETF has been established for less than a year, its total return for one year will still be counted, and the same logic applies to other years, which is why many have the same returns for 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years. Please pay attention to the data.
Note 3: All participating ETFs for statistics are US-listed ETFs with a scale greater than $1 billion.
Most data from tradingview is still accurate, so there's no need to worry too much, but it’s not guaranteed to be completely accurate. For those with doubts, you can check the official websites of each ETF for verification.
1. ETF scale rankings for the first half of 2025.
1. Top 10 rankings for total management scale in the first half of 2025.
In the first half of the year, the US stock ETF market continued to be dominated by familiar giants.
In terms of management scale, large-cap broad-based ETFs still dominate the list, but key changes in rankings have occurred.
VOO surpasses SPY for the first time, becoming the king of ETFs.
Thanks to its ultra-high cost-performance ratio, VOO achieved a rapid growth of +16.61% in scale in the first half of 2025, for the first time sitting atop the management scale of US stock ETFs, which is of great significance.
The trio of giants in the S&P 500 remains stable, but differentiation is intensifying.
Although SPY still ranks second, its growth rate lags far behind VOO and IVV, indicating that investors increasingly favor low-fee ETFs.
VTI remains fourth, still the 'confidence index for the entire market.'
Under the technology-led market, although VTI is not as impressive as QQQ, it still gained steadily due to its diversification advantage.
QQQ continues to attract capital through AI, leading the returns in the broader US stock market.
With an increase of over 8% in the first half of the year, it is the highest for investing in the US stock market on the list, confirming the sustained enthusiasm of the technology market.
Growth vs. Value: VUG continues to lead VTV.
VUG not only has higher returns (+6.83%), but its management scale growth is also significantly faster than VTV (+27.62% vs +20.72%).
VEA and IEFA significantly outperformed the US stock broad-based index, with capital continuing to flow in.
Two non-US developed market ETFs rose over 20% in the first half of the year, which is very rare for their excess performance against US stocks.
The presence of bond ETFs has weakened, with only BND remaining.
Compared to the 2024 list where both AGG and BND made the list, this year only BND remains, with bonds showing relatively less attractiveness compared to equities.
2. Top 10 rankings for actively managed ETFs in the first half of 2025.
In the first half of 2025, the overall performance of actively managed ETFs was relatively average, with not many highlights; only a few really stood out.
JEPI maintains its top position, but JEPQ is gaining momentum.
Although JEPI remains the largest actively managed ETF, its scale only grew by +10.49% in the first half of the year, showing a rather bland performance.
In contrast, the 'junior' JEPQ, which focuses on technology stocks and covered call strategies, firmly rides on the AI hotspot. Although its performance is also quite average, its YTD growth rate reached +32.14%, far surpassing that of its elder brother.
Bond-oriented actively managed ETFs are still strong.
JPST, JAAA, and FBND short bond ETFs recorded growth rates of +13.73%, +32.22%, and +14.00% respectively, continuing to maintain their positions at the forefront.
Factor strategies did not disappoint, especially CGDV and DYNF.
The dividend enhancement CGDV saw a massive scale increase of +53.71% in the first half of the year, while the rotating factor DYNF also reached +40.23%, both becoming 'dark horses' in actively managed ETFs.
Dimensional's two giants continue to deliver steady output.
Although DFAC and DFUS appear to be passive ETFs, they are actually index-enhanced active products, recording growth of +7.94% and +21.12%, remaining popular among institutional investors.
3. Top 10 rankings for management scale growth rates over $10 billion in the first half of 2025.
Why emphasize 'over $10 billion'?
Because if we only set a threshold of $1 billion, most of the ETFs on the list are new, small-scale, and easy to magnify with a small amount of capital.
Although the short-term increase is astonishing, its reference significance is limited and difficult to reflect the true direction of mainstream capital.
Therefore, this list only selects ETFs with asset scales exceeding $10 billion, making it more representative and of long-term allocation value.
Gold, government bonds, and short bonds emerge as big winners.
The top three ETFs are gold (GLDM), ultra-short government bonds (SGOV), and long-term government bonds (TLH), each achieving over 60% growth.
This indicates that in the context of fluctuating expectations for interest rate cuts and rising global risk aversion, gold and US Treasuries have once again become a 'safe haven' for capital.
Overseas market ETFs shine brightly.
IQLT (high-quality overseas stocks), VGK (Europe), and DFIV (international value) all made the list, indicating that capital is no longer firmly clinging to US stocks, and the allocation to non-US assets is clearly rising.
Dividends and emerging market strategies are favored.
CGDV (dividend enhancement) and AVEM (emerging market active ETF) recorded growth rates of +53.71% and +52.33% respectively, making them among the few 'strategy-type ETFs' to enter the $10 billion list.
2. ETF yield rankings for the first half of 2025.
1. Top 10 rankings for total returns of ETFs in the first half of 2025.
In the first half of 2025, the market style became distinctly 'thematic', with precious metals, defense, and regional markets leading the structural market performance.
Precious metal ETFs collectively exploded, with the resources sector leading the way.
From gold mines (GDX, GDXJ, RING) to silver mines (SIL, SILJ) and platinum (PPLT), precious metal ETFs have dominated the charts due to multiple factors such as risk aversion sentiment, central bank gold purchases, and a weaker dollar, becoming the most profitable sector in the first half of the year.
The military industry sector has risen strongly, closely followed by defense technology.
EUAD and SHLD focus on European and global defense companies, performing outstandingly due to geopolitical conflicts, AI militarization, and expanding defense budgets, becoming the most trend-driven themes outside of resources.
The non-US market is filled with highlights, with the Spanish market standing out.
EWP, representing the Spanish market, has seen strong growth, benefiting from falling European inflation and improved economic expectations, making it one of the best-performing national ETFs in the first half of the year.
Short-term explosion in Chinese leveraged ETFs.
YINN (three times long on China) leveraged policy expectations and the rebound in Hong Kong stocks to surge in the first quarter, showing impressive growth after disappointing many last year.
2. Top 10 performing mainstream ETFs with scales over $10 billion.
Compared to the frequently rotating niche ETFs, products with scales exceeding $10 billion better represent the real allocation direction of mainstream capital. However, they are still quite similar to the overall rankings above.
Resource-oriented ETFs lead the market, with gold and gold mining soaring together.
GLD, IAU, GLDM, and other gold ETFs all saw increases of over 27%, while SLV (silver ETF) performed well.
GDX (gold mining stock ETF) seized the title of 'yield king' with a surge of over 56%, fully benefiting from risk aversion sentiment, central bank gold purchases, and a weaker dollar.
The non-US market has made a strong comeback, with the value style rising comprehensively.
EFV, VGK, DFIV, and other developed market ETFs have performed outstandingly, with VYMI (non-US high dividend) and SCZ (developed small-cap) also rising steadily.
Overall, capital in the first half of the year shifted from the high-valuation US growth sector to the undervalued non-US developed markets.
3. Top 10 rankings for total returns of leveraged ETFs in the first half of 2025.
It's time for leveraged ETFs to take the stage. Some exploded while others 'stumbled'; surviving in a volatile market is already half the victory.
YINN stands out alone, with the rebound in Hong Kong stocks amplifying returns.
Driven by policy stimulus, stabilization of the RMB, and undervaluation recovery, YINN, an ETF that is three times long on China, performed outstandingly, becoming the only product on the list that rose over 40%, making it a 'survivor' among leveraged ETFs.
The financial direction is second strongest, with FAS performing reasonably.
As expectations for interest rate cuts rise, the banking and brokerage sectors have rebounded, with FAS, which is three times long on financials, achieving +17.6% returns. Although not as hot as in the past two years, it still shows stable growth.
Bitcoin-related ETFs have some short-term potential, but far less than last year's highlights.
BITU and BITX saw an increase of around 13% in the first half of the year, which seems quite mediocre compared to last year's strong performance that often doubled.
Technology leveraged ETFs collectively 'dropped the ball', with TQQQ being the most typical example.
In the first half of the year, QQQ itself rose by +8.07%, while the three times leveraged TQQQ only saw +4.76% (not listed), even underperforming the original index.
The 2x leveraged QLD is almost on par with the original index, nearly underperforming it. As for other technology leveraged ETFs like TECL, their performance is also bland, with overall enthusiasm and explosiveness far less than in the past two years.
4. Top 10 rankings for actively managed fund yields in the first half of 2025.
In terms of actively managed ETFs, overall performance is moderate, but structural highlights remain noteworthy.
"Value + Factor" strategy shows stable performance, with non-US assets becoming more appealing.
International value-oriented actively managed ETFs like DFIV, AVDV, AVDE, and DISV generally saw increases of 21% to 24% in the first half of the year, benefiting from this wave of non-US market dividends.
ARK series ETFs have returned to the stage but have not regained their former glory.
ARKK, ARKW, and ARKF rose by 25% to 37% respectively. Although Cathie Wood's performance this year is not as legendary as in previous years, three seats in the top 10 still demonstrate her strong capabilities.
Thematic ETFs are driven by hot topics, showing large volatility but substantial elasticity.
MSTY (MicroStrategy's covered call strategy) and BLOK (blockchain theme) both saw increases of over 30% in the first half of the year, mainly driven by AI and cryptocurrency sector sentiment. Although volatility was significant, they still have explosive potential when opportunities arise.
5. ETF decline rankings for the first half of 2025.
In the first half of 2025, the overall performance of US stocks was acceptable, but there were still many ETFs that hit structural landmines.
From the decline rankings, the main concentration is in three categories: inverse/leveraged products, cryptocurrency-related ETFs, and individual stock-enhanced ETFs.
Inverse leveraged products collectively backfire, deadly in a volatile market.
This year, the Nasdaq and semiconductor sectors have generally fluctuated upward, causing SOXS (three times short on semiconductors) and SQQQ (three times short on the Nasdaq) to suffer significant drawdowns, falling -66.6% and -36% respectively.
In a market lacking unilateral trends, inverse leveraged strategies are prone to 'backfire against holders.'
Weakness in cryptocurrency assets hits the Ethereum sector hardest.
ETHU, ETHE, FETH, ETHA, and other Ethereum-themed products almost all fell over 20%.
Bitcoin's performance is relatively stable, but Ethereum shows weak performance, compounded by structural issues (such as high fees and net asset discount), making related ETFs a major disaster area in this round of cryptocurrency corrections.
Tesla-themed ETFs have seen significant drawdowns, and structural strategies struggle to withstand the underlying weakness.
Affected by the decline in Tesla's stock price, TSLL (two times long) and TSLY (covered enhancement) fell by -57.5% and -17.5% respectively in the first half of the year.
This type of structured ETF is highly sensitive to the underlying movements; once there is a lack of trend or downward direction, the drawdown is often more severe.
Cyclical and small-cap styles see phased drawdowns.
OIH (oil services) and TNA (three times long on small caps) both saw declines of nearly -11% in the first half of the year, reflecting a clear cooling in market preference for cyclical and high-volatility assets against a backdrop of high interest rates and uncertainty.
3. Summary
In the first half of 2025, the US stock market maintained a wide range of volatility, but the ETF market showed significant differentiation.
Funds have shifted from high-valuation growth sectors to resources, non-US markets, and defensive assets.
VOO ranks first in scale for the first time, precious metals, military industry, and international value-type ETFs performed impressively; dividend, short bonds, and factor-based products expanded steadily.
In contrast, technology leveraged and inverse ETFs perform poorly, while cryptocurrency-related products show significant differentiation, with hot and cold spots.
Looking ahead to the second half, my judgment is that the market will likely return to the familiar US stock technology main line.
On one hand, as uncertainty gradually eases, the extraordinary excess returns of non-US markets, easily exceeding 15%, are hard to sustain.
On the other hand, since June, the technology sector has shown significant strength, with AI and semiconductors attracting capital back, and the direction of the trend has quietly started to turn.
Of course, technology stock valuations are still high, and once the market fluctuates, the pressure for drawdowns is also substantial.
To heavily invest and chase high returns requires not only courage but also sufficient 'shock resistance' capability.
At this time, the importance of value stocks becomes even more prominent—more reasonable valuations and less volatility provide necessary buffers during market corrections.
Therefore, in the second half, I still insist that the 'technology + value' barbell strategy remains the first choice—
Embrace the trend with one hand and hold the baseline with the other; with both offense and defense, you can walk more steadily and hold on longer.
Prepare for order operations!
Currently, in a bull market, opportunities arise every day, and we share the codes.
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