The approval of the GENIUS law in the U.S. Senate marks a turning point for the crypto sector. This legislation seeks to establish a legal framework for dollar-backed stablecoins, paving the way for national regulation of these assets.
In fact, this new law, if also approved by the House of Representatives and subsequently signed by President Trump, could generate an unprecedented wave of demand for these cryptocurrencies. For Vincent Mortier, Chief Investment Officer at Amundi, the consequences could be significant: "it could be a genius, or it could be malevolent," he emphasized. Behind this ambivalent formula, an entire monetary architecture could be shaken.
Market projections for stablecoins illustrate how much this regulatory change could be a leverage effect. Several key data points allow us to measure the magnitude of the phenomenon:
▫️Other bolder estimates mention a possible increase of up to $2 trillion;
▫️98% of the stablecoins currently in circulation are backed by the dollar, reinforcing the centrality of the greenback in the ecosystem;
▫️However, more than 80% of stablecoin transactions occur outside the United States, revealing a widely globalized use;
▫️The GENIUS law could also stimulate demand for U.S. Treasury bonds, used as collateral, and thus indirectly contribute to financing the U.S. deficit.
These concrete on-chain data show that U.S. law could induce a profound reconfiguration of international capital flows, with a potential shift towards global digital dollarization.
The concerns expressed by Amundi go beyond market mechanisms or technical regulation. They touch on the monetary sovereignty of states, especially outside the United States.
CIO Vincent Mortier fears that these stablecoins, which indeed become "quasi-banks," will capture deposits from individuals and businesses outside of traditional circuits. "People will deposit money in a stablecoin assuming they can withdraw it at any time," he explains.
This quasi-banking function, combined with the growing use of these assets as a means of payment, could disintermediate banking systems and weaken central banks, especially in emerging economies.
This concern is shared by several European financial authorities. Last April, Italian Finance Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti stated that U.S. policy on stablecoins posed "an even more dangerous threat to European financial stability than the trade war led by Trump."
The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) also pointed out the risks of insufficient transparency, capital flight, and loss of control over monetary policies. According to Mortier, this massive adoption could even be "perceived as an implicit message that the dollar is no longer as strong," suggesting a symbolic erosion of the greenback's authority as its use becomes dematerialized through private proxies.
The future of the global monetary system could, therefore, partly hinge on the realm of crypto regulation. If the GENIUS law establishes itself as a significant milestone in the U.S. strategy for digital financial dominance, European reactions indicate that a confrontation is looming.
Follow me for more analysis and news, give a 👍 and share, that would help me a lot to keep growing.
