"The price rises not because of the event. The price rises because of the expectation of the event. And then falls because of disappointment."
Bitcoin has already survived four halvings, and with each subsequent one it becomes clearer:
🔺 Halving is not magic. It's just an event.
But why every 4 years do a thousand influencers start seriously explaining:
"Any moment now! This is a turning point! The price will go to the moon!"
And even better:
"Previous halvings → bull market → so it will happen again!"
No. It won't happen. If it does — then not for that reason.
🧱
What is halving anyway?
The answer at a school level:
"Every 210,000 blocks, the mining reward halves."
This is really important for the economics of BTC issuance.
This affects supply.
It doesn't guarantee growth.
Because the market is a game of two forces: supply and demand.
And so the halving reduces supply. But demand... it doesn't automatically grow. Especially if everyone has already 'priced' expectations into the cost.
🧠
The Pygmalion effect in crypto
"We believe that halving will raise BTC → we buy → BTC rises → we say it's because of halving."
But the truth is different.
It grows not because of halving, but because of the expectation of growth due to halving.
It's a collective hallucination with a limited shelf life.
📈
Look at the charts. But really look
2012 — the first halving. BTC was cheap, the market was small, hardly anyone noticed.
2016 — yes, growth. But most happened a year later, when mass hype and ICOs began.
2020 — after the halving? Months of silence. And the real bull run started when funds, PayPal, Tesla — entered the game.
2024 — well, let's be honest. The market was waiting for the halving, and then... nothing. Most coins? Down. Altcoins? Down. Inflation? Up. Expectations? Deceived again.
🥽
Halving is a lens. Not a triggering mechanism.
It's like the date of the new iPhone. Everyone already knows, everyone is waiting, everyone has 'priced' the cost.
But real change comes not when the event happens. But when the world starts to USE it.
Reducing BTC issuance is important — in the long term. But not instantly.
🧼
Traders need a fairy tale
Halving is convenient.
A simple story.
A simple number.
A simple narrative.
It's like a ball in football. Everyone sees it. But the game is not just about the ball.
It's about the team, the field, the strategy, the atmosphere, the psychology.
The same goes for the market.
Halving is not a reason. It's just a point in the scenario. But the players write a different plot.
✅
What truly matters?
Fund capital.
Regulation.
Mainstream adoption.
Macroeconomics.
Fed rates.
Liquidity.
New participants.
Halving? Well, let it be. But this is just a point in the presentation, not a driver.
🪩
Conclusion: don't wait for halving — wait for yourself
There will be no magic. It will be a boring, slow, economic game.
And whoever understands this — wins.
And the rest... will wait another 4 years to 'catch the halving' again and not get out on time.
📌 Subscribe if you also no longer believed in Santa Claus when you saw the first halving.
