1️⃣ Why this set-up matters
Bitcoin is coiling above $100 K inside a bullish pennant, while BTC Dominance (BTC.D) is testing the roof of a six-month rising channel near 70 %. Meanwhile the Altcoin Season Index (ASI) has climbed from 15 → 23 since 22 June — the first uptick in months.
This trio (pennant, dominance, ASI) often marks the hand-off between a Bitcoin-led run and an alt-coin rotation.
2️⃣ The Pennant – hero chart
See attached image
Pole: +40 K move from March lows
Break line: $109 K
Measured target on confirmation: $138–142 K
Invalidation if price closes < $104 K
3️⃣ BTC Dominance – described, not shown
Six-month channel: 62 % bottom / 70 % top
A weekly rejection from 70 % has preceded every alt rally since 2023
A breakout above turns the market into “BTC-only mode” again
Key level to watch live: 70 % cap on BTC.D
4️⃣ Altcoin Season Index – numbers to know
23 today (< 25 = Bitcoin Season)
First rotation signal arrives above 30
Full Alt-Season historically starts once ASI > 50 and BTC.D sets a lower high
5️⃣ Sectors with the quickest torque (when rotation begins)
Layer-2 / Modular: OP, ARB, zk roll-ups
AI & DePIN: FET, RNDR, AIOZ
Real-World Assets: ONDO, POLYX
Focus on relative-strength names, not everything with a pulse.
6️⃣ If Bitcoin breaks the pennant upward instead
Keep dry powder in stables; avoid chasing thin-liquidity alts
Hedge with small BTC puts or tight trailing stops
Re-enter rotation plays only after BTC.D rolls back under 67 %
7️⃣ Quick rotation checklist
Check BTC.D, ETH/BTC, USDT.D at the start of every session
Monitor July macro prints: NFP (3 Jul), CPI (11 Jul), FOMC (30 Jul)
Scale in, never all-in; risk ≤ 2 % per idea
Final take
Alt-season isn’t a date on the calendar—it’s a process. The pennant and dominance channel are reaching decision points within days. Stay flexible: if BTC clears $109 K, respect the trend; if BTC.D fails at 70 %, be ready to rotate into high-beta sectors.
Not financial advice — do your own research and manage risk responsibly.
#bitcoin #BTC.D #USDT #ONDO #AIOZ
