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Last Sunday it seemed the Iran-Israel conflict was on the cusp of becoming a wider war when the U.S. announced it had deployed B-2 bombers to target Iranian nuclear sites. Bitcoin and crypto as well as traditional risk assets did not like that.

Since then, Iran has retaliated, Iranian threats to close the Strait of Hormuz felt more credible, the U.S. brokered a ceasefire,  and both .

I’m not sure about you, dear reader, but I’ve had my share of Middle East geopolitics for this year. Hopefully now we can resume our bull market. To set the mood right, let’s start with some hopium. First, Bitcoin in 2025 compared to previous cycles shows it’s ready for a major leg up. 



Next up, Bitcoin against M2 Global liquidity indicates we’re on the cusp of a major leg up.



Finally, U.S. year-on-year money supply growth was 4.5%, the biggest increase since July 2022. I don’t think it’s politically viable for U.S. money supply growth to be less than the prior 12 months.



It’s not just in the U.S. either. NATO allies agreed to spend 5% of GDP on defense. Jim Bianco’s chart below “gives you an idea of what 5% means… Something that has not been seen in generations.”



Bitcoin Treasury Companies (egregiously called BTCs, I love it!) are really starting to ramp up. Or so I thought. I’m not so sure now. As Pledditor on X points out, there seems to be a weird fixation with numerology-investing. It smacks of silly marketing and late-cycle zealotry. However, perhaps we’re still in the opening innings of this BTCs trade, as Token Narratives co-host Andrei Terentiev believes.