$BTC

Bitcoin and other “risk” assets are losing value amid a marked market tilt towards safe-haven assets, driven by growing uncertainty regarding upcoming changes in global tariffs. Let us remember that the 90-day “pause” imposed by the U.S. administration on mutual tariff increases ends on July 9, so it is expected that in the coming days the central theme in the markets will be the existence —or absence— of agreements with the United States.

The worst possible scenario (considering the enforcement of all retaliatory tariffs after July 9) would involve an increase in the average tariff to 20% (almost ten times higher than before Trump's mandate), which would undermine the position of the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency.

Paradoxically, this scenario could be favorable for Bitcoin, which many investors consider a safe haven outside the traditional fiat system and which, in extraordinary situations, could become a viable alternative for capital allocation against assets like the dollar. The risks and opportunities are double-edged, and will depend on the final outcome of the agreements: whether the digital asset will extend its long-term upward trend or if it will break that trend downward.

For now, despite the technical pullback, BTC remains above the 50-day exponential moving average (blue line in the lower chart), which represents a potentially important support level for this instrument. Local resistance remains at the recent peak of around $110,500, which is also approaching the highs.