#NFPWatch Here are the highlights from today’s #NFPWatch — the June U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report released early (Thursday, July 3) due to the Independence Day holiday:
---
📊 Key June 2025 NFP Data:
Jobs added: +147,000, well above the consensus forecast of ~110,000
Unemployment rate: Dropped slightly to 4.1% from 4.2%
Average hourly earnings: Rose +0.2% MoM, marking a 3.7% YoY increase—lagging behind the 3.9% expected
Average workweek: Slight dip to 34.2 hours from 34.3
---
🔍 Analysis & Market Reaction:
The job additions exceeded expectations, underlining ongoing—but slowing—momentum in employment .
Private-sector job growth was marginal—only +74,000, the weakest since October 2024 .
Government jobs, particularly in state education, drove much of the gains (+73,000) .
Wage growth cooled modestly, easing pressure on inflation .
The unemployment dip was influenced partly by lower labor force participation .
Markets responded with a stronger U.S. dollar and shifting expectations for Federal Reserve action. Solid data reduces the likelihood of a July rate cut, but slower wage growth keeps the door open for easing later in the year .
---
🏁 Summary:
Headline: A pickup in payrolls (+147k) signals resiliency.
Wages: Cooling wage inflation (+3.7% YoY) reduces inflationary concerns.
Fed Outlook: Data supports a pause in rate moves now, but continued monitoring is needed to see if wage trends enable cuts in the fall.
---
🗓 Next Up:
The next Employment Situation Report (for July) is scheduled for Friday, August 1, 2025 at 8:30 AM ET .
---
Would you like a deeper dive into sector-specific trends, Fed implications, or how the NFP affected specific markets or currencies?
