When the battlefield meets the negotiation table on blockchain, the candlestick is the most honest gambler—last night ETH pierced the heart of the shorts; the Middle Eastern powder keg adds fuel to the bull market!
[Explosive news hits in succession]
Trump suddenly issues 'ceasefire ultimatum'
King of Understanding personally applies pressure: 'Determine Gaza's fate within 24 hours!' Global capital's nerves instantly tighten—successful ceasefire = countdown to risk asset frenzy, negotiation collapse = tsunami-level safe-haven surge!
Case Review: On the day of the outbreak of the Israel-Palestine conflict last October, BTC plummeted 5% in one hour, ETH dropped 7%, 500,000 people liquidated!
ETH technical level nuclear explosion-level fluctuation
On-chain data reveals three major death short signals reversed:
Whale addresses accumulated 120,000 ETH in one day
Perpetual contract funding rate turns positive from negative, shorts forced to close
Key resistance level 2540 violently breached, trading volume surged by 300%!
[Ailes' ultimate simulation—three nuclear scenarios]
Scenario 1: Ceasefire agreement signed (probability 55%)
ETH will open the 'War Dividend' channel:
Institutional risk-averse funds + Middle Eastern hot money flood into cryptocurrency, 2640 is just the first stop, the ultimate target is the March peak of 2850!
Ambush strategy:
Immediately increase positions in Layer 2 leaders ($OP/$ARB), the Middle Eastern tycoons love infrastructure narratives!
Scenario 2: Negotiations break down and conflict escalates (probability 35%)
Gold and oil soar, ETH fears a short-term washout of 10%:
But! A sharp decline is a godsend opportunity—remember the 380% surge after the March 12, 2020 crash, leverage fully during the emergency drop!
Hedging tool:
Quickly open positions in $MKR (decentralized stablecoin), demand surges amidst the conflict!
Scenario 3: False ceasefire, real game (probability 10%)
Politicians perform, market trembles:
ETH will fall into the 2540-2640 death oscillation zone, but on-chain whales have already positioned for bullish options (Deribit data: 2600 Call open interest surged by 200%)!
[Blood and tears warning]
'Don't be hijacked by the 24-hour headlines! After ETH breaks 2540, the shorts' coffin lid is already nailed shut—no matter if the Middle East erupts into black swan events again, a pullback is just sending money!'
Liquidation case: Yesterday, the king of short positions at a certain exchange lost 30 million dollars at 2540
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