After seven years of trading coins, I peaked at turning 500,000 into over 9.6 million, yet also experienced a zero balance for weeks, feeling despondent for half a year. I returned to the crypto space, opened a new account with 50,000, and have now grown it again. In fact, the so-called enlightenment in trading coins is about maintaining calm and composure, whether the market is good or bad, regardless of emotional state or profit curve!
I've tried 80% of the technical methods in the market, but the most practical is still bottom-fishing! I'm sharing everything today, and it will surely help you achieve the path from recovering losses to profits in the morning.
A simple and efficient way to trade coins, almost guaranteed to make a profit! The assets used by fans have already exceeded 7 figures!
My trading strategy consists of only 4 steps, very simple, yet incredibly effective.
Step 1: Choose a coin. Open the daily chart, only select coins with MACD golden crosses, prioritizing golden crosses above the zero axis, which is the condition with the highest success rate!
Step 2: Buying signal. Switch to the daily chart and focus only on one moving average—the daily average line. The rules are simple:
Online holding: Buy and hold when the coin price is above the daily average line.
Offline selling: Immediately sell when the coin price drops below the daily average line.
Step 3: Position management After buying, observe the coin price and trading volume:
1. If the coin price breaks above the daily average line and the trading volume also stabilizes above the daily average line, buy in fully.
2. Selling strategy: · If the increase exceeds 40%: sell 1/3 of your position. · If the increase exceeds 80%: sell another 1/3 of your position. If it drops below the daily average line: liquidate all remaining positions.
Step 4: Strict stop-loss. The daily average line is our core operation. If the coin price suddenly drops below the daily average line the next day, for any reason, you must sell everything; do not take chances!
Although the probability of falling below the daily average line is low through this screening method, we still need to maintain risk awareness. After selling, just wait for the coin price to stabilize above the daily average line again, and you can buy back.
This method is simple and easy to learn, making it very suitable for investors who want to achieve steady profits. Remember, the key to success is to strictly execute each step and not be swayed by emotions!
When I first entered the crypto space, I thought contracts were just gambling!!!
Until I survived with a 10% position rule and made my first bucket of gold.
Today, I will reveal my practical insights, especially the 3rd point, which 90% of people get wrong!
1. Survive first, then talk about making money.
What is the biggest fear in crypto contracts? Liquidation! My iron rule: Always divide total capital into 10 parts, for example, only use 1000 USDT to open a position. Even if it gets liquidated, it's only a cost of 10%, and if you stay calm, you still have a chance to turn it around.
2. Add to profitable positions, cut losses on losing trades.
The truth about why most people lose money: they run when they make money, and stubbornly hold on when they lose!
My system is the opposite:
When profitable: Only add to your position if the unrealized profit exceeds 20%, never touch the principal.
When losing: stop-loss immediately at -5%, absolutely do not add to the position!
(Market makers love to kill those who 'average down'…)
3. Beware of the 'shitcoin' trap.
90% of coins in the crypto space have no value, relying solely on market makers to pump and dump.
My selection criteria:
Only play mainstream contracts, never be fooled by altcoins promising 'get rich overnight';
If a coin suddenly spikes by more than 50%, it's better to miss out than to chase it!
Enough of the small talk!
Share my trading strategies and insights with friends. There's a saying, 'Stand on the shoulders of giants, and you can save ten years of effort.' If you see this,
Friends who want to improve their coin trading skills should definitely read this carefully; I suggest saving it!
If you trade long enough, you'll quickly realize that excellent traders pay great attention to 'odds' and 'probabilities'. Odds and probabilities are the foundation of statistics. Experience tells us that the key to achieving long-term success is having an 'edge'. The best way to understand this concept is to observe any probability-related gambling activity and familiarize yourself with its possible outcomes and returns.
I like to think about this issue this way: If you look at any activity involving probability theory, there is always one side placing bets and the other side accepting bets. Once you abandon the 'gambler's mentality', you will clearly see that casinos have an extremely efficient and successful business model. In other words, casinos accept bets because they are already familiar with the probabilities of the game. It is this understanding of odds and probabilities that allows casinos to continue making profits.
Odds and probabilities may seem confusing, but they are actually very simple.
Odds are a way to express the likelihood of something happening, while probability is the method of quantifying that likelihood.
To understand odds, you can imagine flipping a coin. The odds of the coin landing heads up is 1 to 1, or 50%. This means that each time you flip the coin, the chances of heads or tails are equal. The probability of the coin landing heads up is also 50%.
Probability can be expressed as fractions, decimals, or percentages; while odds are usually expressed as ratios (e.g., 1 to 1 or 2 to 1). Odds can also be expressed in equivalent probabilities, such as 50% or 100%. To calculate the probability of an event occurring, you can divide the number of favorable outcomes by the total number of possible outcomes. For example, if there are two possible outcomes (heads or tails), and one is what we expect (heads), then the probability of that event occurring is 1/2, or 50%.
Odds and probabilities can be used to calculate the chances of winning any gambling game, as well as to make decisions regarding investment opportunities or other risky behaviors.
Let's take a brief look at the business model of casinos, their gambling games, and how they continue to make money. The chart below shows the most popular games in casinos and the 'edge' that casinos have in these games. This 'edge' refers to the mathematical expected return for the casino based on the long-term occurrence of all possible outcomes.
Take the example of a slot machine game, the casino has a 10% advantage over players. This means that every time a player bets $100, the casino averages $10 in profit. In short, it's almost like a 'money printer'. It's like a coin guessing game: if you guess right, I only pay you 90 cents; but every time you guess, I charge you $1.
You may have seen billboards in the city where casinos are located, advertising a slot machine jackpot winner. Because casinos have a 10% edge on slot machines, what they really want is to accumulate millions of plays, as their profit expectations are already predictable and measurable from the start.
At first glance, these percentages may not seem impressive.
But if you want to accurately understand these numbers, just multiply them by the scale of hundreds of billions of dollars.
Casinos do not expect to win every game. But because they have a defined edge, they can continuously generate income.
For example, MGM Grand is the largest casino in the world. In 2020, its revenue exceeded $11.4 billion. That equates to about $36 million in daily revenue. Such a massive cash flow comes from the casino's continuous utilization of mathematical advantage.
Let's take a look at the game of roulette (double-zero roulette). Double-zero roulette is played on a wheel with 38 numbers: including 0, 00, and 1 to 36.
There are 18 red number areas on the roulette.
There are 18 black number areas.
There's also a 0 and a 00.
The probability of the wheel landing on red is 18/38, which is 47.3%.
The probability of landing on black is also 47.3%.
The probability of landing on 0 or 00 is 2/38, which is 5.26%.
The rules of this game are basically the same as single-zero roulette, with the difference being the addition of a double zero. It is this double zero that gives the casino a 5.4% advantage. In single-zero roulette, the casino's advantage is only 2.70%. The odds of any specific number coming up are 38 to 1, but the casino usually only pays 35 to 1 in return. This is the casino's edge. In other words, for every $1000 bet, the casino can expect to profit $5.4, or $54, even under seemingly fair odds. Over the long term, this adds up to a significant advantage for the casino.
The core of the casino's business model is: due to the nature of probabilities, they always earn more than they lose. This is a certainty derived from their focus on risk.
So what does all this have to do with trading?
The casino mindset is vastly different from the gambler's mindset. Gamblers often crave to change their financial situation with one opportunity, addicted to the thrill of 'going all in', fantasizing about luck bringing them wealth. Casinos, on the other hand, always focus on their 'edge'. If we play a coin guessing game, I pay you 90 cents when you guess right, but I charge you $1 for every guess. Therefore, in the long run, I will steadily earn a 10% profit.
All casinos operate this way.
If a casino bets $1 on roulette, it expects to pay out 94.4 cents for each loss and recover $1 for each win. All traders can quickly learn this simple yet powerful lesson.
Most traders overlook the important relationship between position size, risk, and return. When these factors are extracted and mathematically modeled, what you see is a successful formula.
Every excellent trader instinctively understands this principle.
If the strategy is statistically sound, the risks must always be less than the potential rewards.
In the trading world, risk is often mathematically represented as 'R'. All successful traders emulate the mindset of casinos, ensuring that the risk they take is less than their expected returns. If they look at a chart and set a stop-loss at $1, then for long-term success, they must ensure that the expected return remains consistently above $1.
Let's do a math calculation.
Assuming your trading strategy has a win rate of 50% and a loss probability of 50%.
If you made 1000 trades and you earn $1.05 on each winning trade, then your total profit is:
500 trades × $1.05 = $525.
And if you lose $1.00 each time you lose, then your total loss is:
500 trades × $1.00 = $500.
Ultimately, your net profit is: $25.
Although this is common sense, even experienced traders often overlook it. In the real trading world, stakes are higher, and most traders stubbornly hold onto losing positions while taking profits too early, resulting in accepting greater risks than expected returns.
In the trading world, like any probability game, you are always facing risks. You have the potential to profit and the risk of loss; both situations coexist. Any successful trader will tell you that one key to success is having a clear understanding of your trading data. Top traders evaluate their performance like high-level athletes.
This is not just about knowing your winning rate or profit-loss ratio. Truly successful traders track various trading indicators and use them to guide their trading decisions. These include not only your own performance metrics but also the performance of the assets you trade. Understanding the trading environment is also challenging.
You need to ask yourself:
◔ What is the probability of the market rising?
◔ What is the probability of the market closing above last month's high?
◔ What is the probability of a market reversal?
◔ If you lose on your next trade, what impact will it have on your account's net worth?
◔ What happens if you lose 10 trades in a row?
In financial market trading, there are several key questions that every trader must keep in mind:
First, what is the current overall market state? Is it a bull market, bear market, or sideways trend?
Second, what is the current trend of the sector or individual stock I am focused on? Is it rising, falling, or consolidating?
Third, what is the current level of volatility in the market? Is it high, low, or in between?
Fourth, what is the risk/reward ratio of this trade? If the trade fails, how much will I lose? If successful, how much profit can I make?
Fifth, and final point, how long is the holding period for this trade? Is it a few minutes, a few hours, a few days, or longer?
Answering these questions can help traders make statistically-based decisions and focus on 'their own advantages'. Artificial intelligence is tracking all these independent variables to help traders stand on the right trend, at the right time, and on the right side.
The most important indicators include:
◎ Risk/Reward Ratio
◎ Average Winning Rate
◎ Average Loss Rate
By tracking these indicators, you can establish your own statistical expectations like a casino.
Statistical expectation refers to the average probability of a particular outcome occurring after several trials. For example, if you flip a fair coin, the statistical expectation of getting tails is 50%. This means that after many flips, you will get tails about 50% of the time on average. This expectation will be influenced by various factors, including the number of trials, the type of events, and any existing biases. But overall, statistical expectation is a powerful tool for understanding the probability of an event occurring.
If you review the last 100 trades, you can establish a highly reliable expected model for the next 100 trades.
Most traders ultimately fail to survive because they overlook a simple and fundamental principle: expected returns must be greater than risks to survive. Hope is not a strategy.
Excellent traders always focus on four core elements: probability, risk, return, and edge.
So, based on your last 100 trades, what is your statistical expectation?
Do you really have an advantage in the market?
How has your trading performance been over the past year?
In the face of the current economic pressures, what specific measures have you taken to ensure the preservation of your investment portfolio?
For example, there are hundreds of strategies in trading, and once mastered, you can also have a sustainable edge like a casino.
Statistical advantage: The path to achieving stable profits.
Just as casinos don’t rely on luck to make profits, to achieve success in trading, you also need a quantifiable statistical advantage.
This advantage comes from identifying repeatable statistical trends in the market, allowing traders to continuously utilize and profit from them.
Statistical advantage in trading refers to identifying patterns or trends in the market that have a high probability of repeating, allowing traders to continuously profit from these patterns. Here is an example:
Mean reversion of stock prices: Some stock prices tend to revert to their average values over the long term. For example, if a stock's price deviates significantly from its historical average price (e.g., 20-day moving average), traders might expect that price to 'revert' to the average level.
Traders can develop a strategy: buy when stock prices are significantly below the moving average (i.e., oversold), and sell when they rebound to or above the average. Conversely, short when stock prices are significantly above the average (i.e., overbought) and cover when prices fall back to near the average.
The effectiveness of this strategy lies in its exploitation of certain stocks' statistical characteristics around the mean, especially suitable for markets with low volatility or in a range-bound state. By backtesting historical data, the reliability and long-term profitability of this strategy can be verified.
Why is this strategy effective?
This advantage stems from the repeatable statistical trend of 'mean reversion', which is evident in many financial instruments. By continuously executing this strategy and combining it with good risk management, traders can achieve positive expected returns over the long term.
Your goal is not to win every trade, but to win more times than you lose over the long term. Carefully record your trading results to confirm whether your method can yield stable profits.
Remember, even with a solid trading edge, you will still experience losing phases.
The difference between successful and unsuccessful traders is not whether they can avoid losses, but whether they can maintain discipline during drawdown periods.
When you trust your mature trading strategy, short-term setbacks are merely part of the path to long-term profitability.
A system with a win rate between 60% and 80%, combined with reasonable position management, can usually provide stable profits.
Lower risk while accepting drawdowns.
Every successful trader will face a drawdown period—this is not a question of 'if it will happen', but 'when it will happen'. Just like in a casino, you must cultivate a sense of risk awareness to deal with these inevitable challenges.
Do not give up on your strategy because of a few losses; recognize that drawdowns are a mathematical reality in trading. Your trading method should accept the existence of drawdowns rather than fight against them.
Set clear risk parameters, limit position sizes, and keep sufficient capital reserves. When losses occur, resist the impulse to make emotional adjustments to the system. Understanding that people instinctively react under pressure can help you avoid emotional decision-making during tough trading times.
Summary
To trade like a casino, you must accept the fact that the outcome of any single trade is random, and your statistical advantage is the key to profitability over the long term. Do not abandon your strategy because of losses—losses are merely the statistical cost of doing business in trading.
Track your trading results to verify whether your edge is effective; maintain discipline during drawdowns; use a consistent trading checklist to control emotions.
When you truly accept this way of thinking, you will no longer blindly pursue perfect trades, but instead begin to build a sustainable and stable profitability like a casino.
The market is incredibly honest—there are only winners and losers, black and white.
If you need a friend, get a dog.
If you want to win, it means someone else has to lose.
If the reality of 'survival of the fittest' makes you uncomfortable, then stay out of the financial markets.
