The US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is a crucial economic indicator that measures the number of jobs added in the US economy, excluding farm workers, government officials, and non-profit organization employees. This report significantly impacts the US dollar's value and financial markets. The first thing you need to know: NFP Report Details
- Release Time: The NFP report is released on the first Friday of each month; however, the July report will be released on Thursday, July 4, 2025, at 12:30 PM UTC due to the Independence Day holiday. - "Expected Jobs Added": From 139,000 in May, economists anticipate a modest gain of around 110,000 jobs. - Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly to 4.3% from 4.2%.
- "Average Hourly Earnings": It is anticipated that wage growth will remain the same at 3.9% year-over-year. Market Impact
- US Dollar: A stronger-than-anticipated NFP report could boost the US dollar, whereas a weaker one could cause it to fall. - Gold Prices: Gold prices tend to move inversely to the US dollar. A strong NFP report could lead to a decline in gold prices, while a weak report might boost gold prices.
- Stock Market: Positive job numbers often lift stocks, indicating robust economic growth. However, excessively high employment growth may raise fears of rate hikes, weighing on sentiment.
Implications for Trade - Volatility: The NFP report has the potential to significantly alter the market, so traders should exercise caution and adjust their strategies accordingly. - Interest Rate Decisions: The NFP report can influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, including potential interest rate cuts or hikes ² ³.