As the wave of digital assets sweeps across the globe, stablecoins are seen as a revolutionary force reshaping the digital financial system. However, JPMorgan Chase believes that by 2028, the overall market value of stablecoins is expected to reach $500 billion, which is far from the $1 trillion and $2 trillion estimates put forth by other institutions.
This research report, authored by JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, was released on Thursday and bluntly states that the current market's imagination of the growth potential of stablecoins is "overly optimistic."
The report notes that the primary demand for stablecoins currently comes from the cryptocurrency ecosystem, including trading, DeFi collateral, and the management of idle funds by cryptocurrency institutions, which accounts for about 88% of the overall demand; in contrast, the proportion of stablecoins used for general payments and remittances is only 6%.
The report stated: "We believe that the claim that the market size of stablecoins will rapidly expand from the current approximately $250 billion to $1 trillion or even $2 trillion in the coming years is overly optimistic."
The report further points out that even in the most optimistic scenario, the growth of stablecoins in payment applications is unlikely to lead to a significant leap in market size; at the same time, stablecoins are also unlikely to replace traditional bank deposits or money market funds, primarily because stablecoins cannot offer attractive yields, and there still exists considerable friction costs in the conversion between fiat currency and stablecoins.
Furthermore, JPMorgan also opposes comparing stablecoins with applications such as China's central bank digital currency (e-CNY), Alipay, and WeChat Pay, arguing that the latter are centralized payment tools, which fundamentally differ from the operational logic of decentralized stablecoins, making them difficult to serve as a reference.
Overall, JPMorgan believes that the growth trajectory of stablecoins in the coming years will be driven by "demand from the cryptocurrency sector" rather than a payment revolution involving widespread participation.
However, not all market participants are pessimistic. A report released by Standard Chartered in April this year takes a more aggressive stance, suggesting that if the U.S. Congress passes the stablecoin regulatory bill (GENIUS Act), it could trigger a massive increase in the supply of stablecoins, driving the total market value from about $230 billion to $2 trillion by the end of 2028.
"Standard Chartered estimates that the market value of stablecoins could reach $2 trillion by 2028! JPMorgan responds: At most $500 billion" This article was first published on (Block客).
