#NFPWatch 🔍 This is what we read in the media... And here is what they write between the lines
The monthly magic of numbers - this is what Friday looks like on financial markets. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) - the data everyone is waiting for, and at the same time afraid of.
The headlines are loud:
‘Strong indicators - the dollar rises!’
‘Weak employment - a chance for the market!’
But this is just the surface.
__ Investors read the mood, not the numbers
The big paradox: **the market reacts not to facts, but to emotions about expected facts**.
When analysts forecast growth - the market moves ahead, even before the publication.
This is a game of expectations. Who guesses the crowd's mood - wins. Not the one who reads the reports.
The forecast is more important than reality
The data itself is like the final chord of a performance that has already been played.
The market _knows_ there will be a reaction. That’s why it creates it earlier.
After the report - a brief chaos, quick decisions, but this is no longer analytics. This is - **a ritual**.
📰 The media creates a narrative, not explanations
Instead of deep analysis - we have **emotional narratives**.
‘Strong numbers - the economy is strong’. But what exactly do these ‘strong’ mean?
NFP does not take into account:
- self-employed
- quality of work
- the impact of inflation
These are not all the components of a healthy economy - but this is kept quiet.
# Read trends, not headlines
A wise investor knows:
- short-term noise - it’s just noise
- behavior patterns - this is the real GPS
So instead of NFP swings - a strategy for the long distance.
Less emotion - more understanding.
