Current BTC (Bitcoin) Trend Analysis:
1. Fluctuating Upward Pattern: Recently, the BTC price has remained in the high fluctuation range of $106,000-$108,000, overall showing a 'volume contraction' characteristic, with no significant one-sided breakout, but the daily bullish trend remains unchanged, only the momentum has slightly weakened.
2. Technical Signals: RSI has retreated from the overbought area, MACD histogram height has narrowed significantly, a 'head and shoulders' pattern is forming on the 4-hour chart, and if it breaks the neckline (around $102,200) with increased volume, it may pull back to the $98,500-$100,000 range; if it dips to $100,000-$101,200 and shows a long lower shadow, it may trigger technical buying rebounds.
3. Market Sentiment and Capital: ETF capital has recently seen a single-day outflow (such as $96 million), the Fear and Greed Index remains in the 'Greed' range (70), short-term pullback risks are increasing, but large whales continue to accumulate coins, and institutional demand (such as ETFs, MicroStrategy) still provides long-term support.
4. Mid-term Outlook: Some institutions predict that BTC may rise to $145,000-$200,000 by mid-2025, but caution is needed regarding the risk of fluctuations or pullbacks without substantial news support; if it falls below the $100,000 key level, it may form a bearish technical pattern.
5. Operational Suggestions: In the short term, a 'sell high buy low' strategy can be adopted, focusing on breakthrough/pullback signals near $103,500 (resistance) and $106,000 (support); medium to long-term investors can wait for a pullback to below $100,000 to accumulate in batches, but caution is needed regarding institutional selling pressure (such as government, Mt. Gox compensation) and macro uncertainties.
Summary: BTC is currently in a high-level fluctuating upward stage, short-term volatility is increasing but the mid-term trend remains optimistic; close attention should be paid to key support/resistance levels and institutional capital movements, and cautious operations are required to cope with potential pullback risks.