The current attitude of the Federal Reserve is relatively moderate, the performance of U.S. stock earnings is decent, and the market sentiment recovery after the '7.4' holiday provides short-term support for Bitcoin prices.

However, if net inflows do not show a significant rebound, especially in the absence of retail or new capital driving it, this wave of rebound may encounter resistance around $116,000, with an optimistic scenario possibly reaching $120,000.

The smoothed moving average of the 'Greed/Fear Index' has shown signs of bottoming out, which may rebound into the 'Greed Zone', usually indicating an increase in price momentum. Therefore, if the strong trend of July continues, the originally conservative expectation of a 'summer adjustment' may need to be revised.