Macroeconomic Background

  1. U.S. debt ceiling bill: close to passing vote, indirectly positive for the economy (expanding debt, tax cuts stimulus), but limited impact on Bitcoin; the market's rise the day before yesterday and yesterday may not be due to this.

  2. Non-farm data (June added 147,000, exceeding expectations of 110,000; unemployment rate at 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3%):

    • Rate cut logic (bearish): Strong employment and sufficient economic resilience mean the Federal Reserve does not need to rush to cut rates (July rate cut probability has fallen to a low). Funds remain in high-yield bonds, which is bearish for the stock market and cryptocurrencies in the short term, affecting them for 1-2 days.

    • Economic fundamentals logic (bullish): Strong employment signals that the economy is not in recession, corporate profits are stable, and consumer power supports this, indicating a 'soft landing' which is positive for the medium to long-term outlook of U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies.

Market Analysis

  • J.P. Morgan's prediction: Non-farm payrolls above 145,000, S&P 500 up 1%-1.5%; below 85,000, down 2%-3%. The current 147,000 is slightly bullish (economic logic), but the failure of short-term rate cut expectations may trigger a correction.

  • Market sentiment: Yesterday's unexpectedly negative small non-farm data did not trigger safe-haven buying, indicating the market leans towards interpreting economic resilience.

Technical Analysis

  • The day before yesterday and yesterday saw a double explosion of longs and shorts, clearing out 105000 long positions and 110000 short positions, making the market 'clean.'

  • Operation Review: Both yesterday and the day before were spent with light positions in Ethereum, the order at 2640 resistance for shorts was not filled, the index reached around 2635, and news in the evening caused the market to fluctuate significantly; Bitcoin price broke through 110,000 but did not hold, leading to a free fall, while Ethereum's price correspondingly dropped below 2600, making several short trades around 2590.

Conclusion
Non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations in the short term, which may be bearish (weaker rate cut expectations), but economic resilience supports long-term bullishness. From a technical perspective, 110000 is a key level; if it holds, it may continue to rise, but if it doesn't, a pullback is possible. It is advised to observe market reactions after the data, and be cautious about chasing highs in the short term.