Technical Analysis (15-minute frame)

Scenario one – the bullish scenario: Gold rose from 3245 to 3350 in just 2–4 days. The price broke the 3340 level firmly. A continuation of upward momentum + negative news for the dollar is expected ⟹ gold may reach:

3380 dollars

Then 3400 and up to 3360 – 3365 are considered partial resistances that it may temporarily bounce from.

Scenario two – the bearish scenario: If gold fails to hold above 3340. Positive US data may lead to:

3380 dollars

Then 3400 and up to 3360 – 3365 are considered partial resistances that it may temporarily bounce from.

Scenario two – the bearish scenario: If gold fails to hold above 3340. Positive US data may lead to:

Breaking below 3340,

Then a drop towards 3320

And perhaps down to 3300 in the short term.

Fundamental Analysis (the reasons behind gold movements)

Supporting factors for the rise of gold: US deficit: Trump's plan may raise the deficit to 3 trillion dollars ⟹ pressure on the dollar.

The possibility of "Jerome Powell" being isolated ⟹ creating uncertainty in monetary policy.

Gold purchases by central banks (China – Russia – BRICS).

US-China trade tensions + tariffs on July 9 ⟹ geopolitical fears.

Negative factors that may pressure gold:

A hawkish tone from the US Federal Reserve.

Strong US employment data ⟹ support for the dollar and weakness for gold.

Negative factors that may pressure gold:

A hawkish tone from the US Federal Reserve.

Strong US employment data ⟹ support for the dollar and weakness for gold.

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