Technical Analysis (15-minute frame)
Scenario one – the bullish scenario: Gold rose from 3245 to 3350 in just 2–4 days. The price broke the 3340 level firmly. A continuation of upward momentum + negative news for the dollar is expected ⟹ gold may reach:
3380 dollars
Then 3400 and up to 3360 – 3365 are considered partial resistances that it may temporarily bounce from.
Scenario two – the bearish scenario: If gold fails to hold above 3340. Positive US data may lead to:
3380 dollars
Then 3400 and up to 3360 – 3365 are considered partial resistances that it may temporarily bounce from.
Scenario two – the bearish scenario: If gold fails to hold above 3340. Positive US data may lead to:
Breaking below 3340,
Then a drop towards 3320
And perhaps down to 3300 in the short term.
Fundamental Analysis (the reasons behind gold movements)
Supporting factors for the rise of gold: US deficit: Trump's plan may raise the deficit to 3 trillion dollars ⟹ pressure on the dollar.
The possibility of "Jerome Powell" being isolated ⟹ creating uncertainty in monetary policy.
Gold purchases by central banks (China – Russia – BRICS).
US-China trade tensions + tariffs on July 9 ⟹ geopolitical fears.
Negative factors that may pressure gold:
A hawkish tone from the US Federal Reserve.
Strong US employment data ⟹ support for the dollar and weakness for gold.
Negative factors that may pressure gold:
A hawkish tone from the US Federal Reserve.
Strong US employment data ⟹ support for the dollar and weakness for gold.
$gold
$btc