Last night, ETH suddenly surged violently, rising over 5% in one hour, charging towards $2635! Countless shorts were liquidated, and the market was in an uproar. But behind the surge, is it a technical reversal or driven by news? Can it break through the previous high?

1. Reasons for the surge: Technical divergence + macro sentiment reversal.

  1. Technical 'golden pit' signal.

    • MACD bottom divergence: From the provided 1-hour candlestick, there was already a key reversal signal in MACD before the surge! Although DIF and DEA are in a death cross, the green bars have significantly narrowed, indicating a depletion of bearish momentum.

    • RSI oversold rebound: RSI1 fell to a minimum of 35.99, approaching the oversold zone of 30, but quickly rebounded to 47.77, forming a 'bottom divergence' that triggered buying.

    • Key time window.On July 4th, coinciding with the U.S. Independence Day holiday, liquidity is thin, and a small amount of buying can drive prices soaring.

  2. The news 'expectation gap' ignites the market.

    • Non-farm data hides secrets:

      • The U.S. unemployment rate in June is 4.3%, higher than the previous value of 4.2%, with non-farm employment increasing by 110,000, lower than the previous value of 139,000. The weak data suggests an economic slowdown.

      • The market interprets as 'interest rate cut expectations delayed but not disappeared': Although the probability of a rate cut in July has dropped to zero with prior bets canceled, the probability of a rate cut in September remains as high as 80%! The expectation of liquidity easing remains.

    • Surge in demand for capital safety:

      • The number of initial jobless claims is 236,000, rising for three consecutive weeks, with some funds shifting from U.S. stocks to the crypto market, with ETH becoming a safe-haven asset.

      • Whales take the opportunity to buy: On-chain data shows that a certain institution has accumulated over 20,000 ETH near the $2500 mark.

2. Market forecast: Breakthrough 2635 or deep correction? Key points to watch!

1. Upward scenario probability 60%

Breakthrough conditions: If it stabilizes above the 2600 mark and MACD forms a golden cross, a new round of offensive will begin.

Target level:

Short term looks at 2680-2700;

If it breaks through 2700 with volume, it will challenge 2800.

Catalyst:

In mid-July, the final approval of the ETH spot ETF is approaching, and policy expectations are warming up;

If the probability of a Fed rate cut in September rises back to 90%+, it will ignite the altcoin season.

2. Downward scenario probability 40%

Trigger signal: If the resistance level of 2635 fails to break three times, it will trigger profit-taking sell-offs.

Retracement target:

First support at 2560 Fibonacci 38.2% + 1-hour MA30;

Strong support at 2480-2500 daily line chip concentration area; breaking below will turn bearish.

Big D risk warning:

If tonight's U.S. non-farm revision exceeds the expected strong previous value of 237,000, interest rate cut expectations may cool again, and ETH could flash drop to 2450.
The current market is essentially an 'expectation game'! The technicals have provided bullish signals, but macro data, especially inflation and employment, remain a powder keg. Be sure to set stop losses.

$ETH
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