👐 What opportunities does Vietnam have after the trade agreement with the US signed on the evening of July 2, 2025:
🇻🇳 BENEFITS
- Maintaining a strategic relationship with the US – avoiding being listed as a currency manipulator or facing comprehensive tariffs.
- Gaining access to affordable American goods, especially cars, agricultural products, and medical equipment – benefiting consumers and certain distribution service sectors.
- Having additional time to adjust export strategies, avoiding a scenario of facing heavier tariffs from the US.
⚠️ RISKS
- Vietnamese goods being subject to a 20% tariff when exported to the US, causing difficulties for textiles, leather, and electronics – which are key export pillars.
- The risk of American goods flooding the market, creating fierce competition for domestic enterprises – especially in agriculture and domestically assembled cars.
- Unclear detailed terms, leading to instability in production and business planning for Q3 and Q4 of 2025.
⚡️ OPPORTUNITIES
- Restructuring the supply chain: Vietnamese businesses can upgrade technology and increase added value instead of relying on simple processing.
- Further negotiations with other countries: Using the position of "strategic partner of the US" to expand FTAs with India, the EU, Japan...
- Promoting localization and exporting to other markets: Leveraging FTAs like CPTPP, RCEP to reduce dependence on the US.
In Conclusion
- Vietnam maintains an image of a flexible partner, respecting the rules of the game, and not engaging in trade confrontations with a superpower.
- In a passive position but not at a disadvantage: Accepting short-term trade-offs to secure long-term benefits, with room for strategic pivoting.