📊 NFP Watch – Key Report Incoming
The June U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data drops Thursday, July 3 at 8:30 AM ET — a pivotal moment for markets.
📌 Market Expectations
Jobs Added: Forecast ranges between +120K to +126K
Unemployment Rate: Expected to tick up to 4.3%
Wage Growth (YoY): Seen at 3.7%–3.9%
🔍 Why It Matters
A weaker print could strengthen the case for Fed rate cuts, especially after recent signs of a labor market slowdown.
A strong number may delay any policy easing, pushing yields and the dollar higher.
ADP's earlier report showed a 33K drop in private jobs, but today’s official NFP surprised with a +147K gain, and unemployment at 4.1% — catching many off guard.
🧠 What to Watch
Headline Job Growth vs forecast
Unemployment Rate Shift
Wage Inflation Trends
Revisions to previous months’ data
📈 Market Reactions
Hot NFP: USD rallies, yields rise, equities may pull back
Soft NFP: Risk-on sentiment, gold and bonds up, USD down
According to BMO, this release could “set the tone for the bond market through much of July.”
🗓️ Key Event Timing
Event Time (ET)
NFP Report Thu, Jul 3 – 8:30 AM
ISM Services PMI Thu, Jul 3 – 10:00 AM