#NFPWatch Next NFP release: The U.S. Non-Farm Payroll (June data) will be published Thursday, July 3, 2025, at 8:30 am ET (that’s 12:30 pm UTC)  .

• Forecast: Economists expect payroll growth of around 95–110K, down from May’s 139K, with the unemployment rate possibly rising from 4.2% to 4.3% .

• Context & market impact: This release is a critical market-moving event. A stronger-than-expected print could push the USD higher, while a weaker one could swing equities and bonds (). Given Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s warnings about a strong labor market affecting rate decisions, this report could significantly influence expectations around any interest rate cuts .

If you’re positioning for this, consider these factors: