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1. Interest rate forecast from CME FedWatch Tool:

  • July 2025:

    • Maintain interest rates: 76.7%

    • Cut by 25 basis points (0.25%): 23.3%

  • September 2025:

    • Maintain interest rates: 4.9%

    • Cut by 25 basis points: 73.3%

    • Total cut of 50 basis points (0.5%): 21.8%

👉 Assessment: The market expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates from September, with a probability of over 90% (including the possibility of a 25 or 50 basis point cut).

2. Recent economic context:

  • ADP data ("Nonfarm Payroll") released on Wednesday (3/7) unexpectedly showed a negative value, indicating signs of weakening in the labor market.

  • Official Nonfarm (147,000 jobs, better than expected) but still below previous average growth.

  • The unemployment rate is 4.1% (higher than the 3.9% at the beginning of the year), indicating clear downward pressure on inflation.

3. Market impact:

  • US stocks could benefit if the Fed cuts interest rates, due to lower capital costs.

  • Gold and Bitcoin may rise if the USD weakens.

  • US government bonds will rise (yields decrease).