#NFPWatch 📈 August Estimates

Job Creation: consensus around +110,000, after +139,000 in May, which would represent the lowest increase since October 2024.

Unemployment Rate: expected to rise to 4.3%, compared to 4.2% the previous month.

Average Hourly Earnings: expected to increase by +0.3% month over month, or approximately +3.9% year over year.

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🔍 Why This Matters for the Markets

A slower pace of job creation and rising unemployment reinforce the idea of an economic slowdown.

Implications for Fed Decisions: a report deemed "weak" would increase the likelihood of a first rate cut as early as September, or even August.

Effect on the Dollar and Risky Assets:

A weak NFP tends to weaken the dollar, temper inflation expectations, and revive risky assets like stocks.

Conversely, figures above 125,000–145,000 jobs could strengthen the dollar and stock markets according to JPMorgan simulations.