Based on the current technical, funding, and market sentiment of Ethereum (ETH), here is a brief analysis and key points regarding 'yearly line stabilization and new highs expected':
1. Key technical signals: Yearly line stabilization and trend breakthrough
- Yearly line (200-day moving average) stabilization: The current ETH price has stabilized above the 200-day moving average (approximately $2500), which is a key signal for the medium- to long-term trend shifting from weak to strong. Historically, breakthroughs of the yearly line often accompany trend-driven upward markets.
- Competition for key resistance levels: If ETH can further stabilize above $2685 (a resistance level tested multiple times recently), it will open up an upward channel, targeting the $3000-3400 range; if it breaks through $2850, it is expected to challenge $3000 and higher levels.
2. Funding and institutional trends: ETF inflows and whale accumulation
- Spot ETF fund inflows: Recent net inflows into ETH spot ETFs for 12 consecutive days (totaling $321 million), with institutional holding costs around $3300-3500, possibly becoming a mid-term target.
- Whale accumulation and staking growth: Whale addresses (holding 10,000-100,000 ETH) are accelerating their accumulation, and staking activity has increased (27% of ETH staked, annualized deflation at 0.22%), reducing circulating supply, which is a clear long-term bullish signal.
3. Market sentiment and derivatives data: Bulls dominate but caution is needed for pullbacks
- Derivatives market dominated by bulls: Perpetual contract funding rates have soared (annualized over 60%), and call options have a rising skew, indicating optimistic investor expectations.
- Risk warning: If there are adverse signals at the macro level (such as U.S. CPI exceeding expectations) or technical level (falling below the $2450 support), it may trigger a short-term pullback, and attention should be paid to the $2650-2700 support range.
4. Medium- to long-term outlook: Space above $3000 is expected
- Technical pattern and target: The current 'U-shaped bottom' pattern is confirmed, and based on historical price increases, ETH may still have an 81% upside potential (target $4570); institutional holding costs and ecological development (such as Pectra upgrade and RWA tokenization) support a bullish logic in the medium- to long-term.
- 2030 forecast: According to the Gate.com model, ETH could reach a maximum of $7293 by 2030, indicating significant long-term potential.
Conclusion
Short-term breakout is expected, while medium- to long-term requires observation of institutional trends: ETH is currently at a critical turning point, with yearly line stabilization being an important sign of trend confirmation. If it successfully breaks through the resistance range of $2685-2850, space above $3000 is expected; however, caution is needed for macro risks and technical pullback pressure. Investors can gradually position, setting a stop-loss at $2585, and pay attention to structural opportunities brought by institutional capital and ecological development in the medium- to long-term.