July begins, let's see how BTC performs in the crypto world this July, will it soar to the sky or go into 'free fall'?
Combining the latest developments, macro trends, and favorable and unfavorable factors, we won't beat around the bush today; we'll give you a 'down-to-earth' analysis to help protect your wallet from getting 'hurt'!
Macro trend: Is the Federal Reserve 'playing with you'?
The Federal Reserve, this big brother, has recently been 'hinting' at interest rate cuts, and the market senses a possible 25 basis point cut in September, but the probability of adding drama in July is low (Bloomberg reported on July 1);
This means that liquidity is likely to be tight in the short term, and BTC will have to wait to 'take off'; not to mention the debt ceiling negotiations on July 15 in the U.S., if they fall apart, market risk aversion will soar, and BTC may be tossed around like a 'hot potato'.
However, there are reports that: Trump's team has privately contacted crypto bigwigs, hinting at introducing new crypto policies if they come to power. If this comes true, BTC is likely to 'ignite and soar'!
Favorable news: Institutions are 'buying, buying, buying', and there are plenty of good news from policies!
Grayscale's report on July 2 shows that BTC ETF had a net inflow of $1.89 billion this week, showing that Wall Street's wallet truly loves BTC;
Looking globally, Canada passed new regulations for 'crypto asset custody' on July 1, paving the way for institutional entry, keeping BTC demand steady as a rock.
There's also a big surprise: Bloomberg mentioned on July 1 that the EU's MiCA legislation will take effect at the end of July, and compliant exchanges may welcome a springtime, with BTC trading volume expected to skyrocket. This wave of good news is like giving BTC a bottle of 'Red Bull'!
Unfavorable news: Technical 'stumbling blocks', regulatory 'ghosts lingering' but don't rush to pop the champagne;
BTC is currently stuck at the 200-day moving average of 108,000, and the technical analysts are arguing furiously over it. According to seasoned analysts, if it falls below 106,000, a short-term pullback to 100,000 isn't a dream;
On the regulatory front, India reiterated high tax rates on crypto trading on July 1, and the lack of global regulatory coordination makes BTC a bit of a 'squeezed survivor', not to mention the non-farm payroll data on July 4. If employment data exceeds expectations and U.S. stocks pull back, BTC is likely to 'go down with the ship'.
Conclusion: Range-bound fluctuations, and BTC is likely to 'jump around' between 104,000 and 112,000 in July. Upside potential depends on policy 'red envelopes' (like a smooth resolution of the U.S. debt ceiling), while downside risks include technical breakdowns and macro 'black swans'.
Recommendation: Operate with a light position, monitor the support at 106,000 and resistance at 112,000, and don’t let the market 'walk the dog'.
$BTC
$IOTA
#加密市场回调
Combining the latest developments, macro trends, and favorable and unfavorable factors, we won't beat around the bush today; we'll give you a 'down-to-earth' analysis to help protect your wallet from getting 'hurt'!
Macro trend: Is the Federal Reserve 'playing with you'?
The Federal Reserve, this big brother, has recently been 'hinting' at interest rate cuts, and the market senses a possible 25 basis point cut in September, but the probability of adding drama in July is low (Bloomberg reported on July 1);
This means that liquidity is likely to be tight in the short term, and BTC will have to wait to 'take off'; not to mention the debt ceiling negotiations on July 15 in the U.S., if they fall apart, market risk aversion will soar, and BTC may be tossed around like a 'hot potato'.
However, there are reports that: Trump's team has privately contacted crypto bigwigs, hinting at introducing new crypto policies if they come to power. If this comes true, BTC is likely to 'ignite and soar'!
Favorable news: Institutions are 'buying, buying, buying', and there are plenty of good news from policies!
Grayscale's report on July 2 shows that BTC ETF had a net inflow of $1.89 billion this week, showing that Wall Street's wallet truly loves BTC;
Looking globally, Canada passed new regulations for 'crypto asset custody' on July 1, paving the way for institutional entry, keeping BTC demand steady as a rock.
There's also a big surprise: Bloomberg mentioned on July 1 that the EU's MiCA legislation will take effect at the end of July, and compliant exchanges may welcome a springtime, with BTC trading volume expected to skyrocket. This wave of good news is like giving BTC a bottle of 'Red Bull'!
Unfavorable news: Technical 'stumbling blocks', regulatory 'ghosts lingering' but don't rush to pop the champagne;
BTC is currently stuck at the 200-day moving average of 108,000, and the technical analysts are arguing furiously over it. According to seasoned analysts, if it falls below 106,000, a short-term pullback to 100,000 isn't a dream;
On the regulatory front, India reiterated high tax rates on crypto trading on July 1, and the lack of global regulatory coordination makes BTC a bit of a 'squeezed survivor', not to mention the non-farm payroll data on July 4. If employment data exceeds expectations and U.S. stocks pull back, BTC is likely to 'go down with the ship'.
Conclusion: Range-bound fluctuations, and BTC is likely to 'jump around' between 104,000 and 112,000 in July. Upside potential depends on policy 'red envelopes' (like a smooth resolution of the U.S. debt ceiling), while downside risks include technical breakdowns and macro 'black swans'.
Recommendation: Operate with a light position, monitor the support at 106,000 and resistance at 112,000, and don’t let the market 'walk the dog'.
$BTC
$IOTA
#加密市场回调
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content. See T&Cs.
BTC
108,993.75
-0.07%