$ETH

Here’s today’s Ethereum (ETH) analysis, July 2, 2025:

📉 Price & Market Context

ETH is currently trading around $2,462, up marginally today. Intraday range: $2,392–$2,462 .

Broader crypto market is mixed—Bitcoin modestly up, while ETH and other alts are lagging slightly, behaving more like tech stocks than safe-haven assets .

🔍 Technical Setup

ETH remains range-bound between $2,300 and $2,600, straddling the 20-day EMA (~$2,470) .

Key resistance lies near $2,500–$2,600, overlapping the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from recent swing highs .

Indicators:

RSI (~50): neutral stance but tilting bullish from late June lows .

MACD: showing early bullish divergence—histogram rising and MACD line attempting a crossover .

Bollinger Bands are narrowing, signaling low volatility. A breakout beyond bands (~$2,709 upper / ~$2,254 lower) could lead to a sharp move .

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🚦 Bull/Bear Scenarios

Bull Case:

A decisive move above $2,600–$2,700 could open a path to $2,900–$3,000, potentially extending to $4,000 as seen post-Pectra upgrade .

Bear Case:

Failure to hold $2,400 support risks a return to $2,200, with a worse drop toward $2,050–$2,150 cluster or even lower if sentiment worsens.

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📊 Recent On-Chain & Upgrade Drivers

Pectra upgrade (mid‑May) improved efficiency and burn dynamics, but DeFi TVL has pulled back ~15% .

Accumulation addresses remain active; whale inflows are noticeable—public entities are adding ETH to their treasuries .

Network usage is rebounding: daily tx count rose from ~1.2M to ~1.75M over recent days .

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🧭 Today’s Outlook

ETH is consolidating after a mid-year pullback (~3% down). As macro & crypto markets trade with tech stocks, calm volumes dominate. Keep an eye on:

Breakout above $2,600–$2,700 with increasing volume = bullish confirmation.

Breakdown below $2,400, especially on rising macro risk, = bearish signal.

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