The fourth Bitcoin halving occurred on April 20, 2024, reducing miner rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Now, in mid-2025, the crypto world is watching closely: will history repeat itself with a post-halving bull run, or are we entering uncharted territory?
Let’s break down what’s happening, what’s changed, and what traders should be watching. 📊
🔍 What Just Happened?
Bitcoin’s halving is a built-in mechanism that cuts the rate of new BTC issuance every four years. This time:
Block rewards dropped to 3.125 BTC
Annual inflation rate fell below 1%
Scarcity narrative intensified, especially among institutional investors
According to CoinLedger, the halving is designed to mimic gold’s scarcity and has historically preceded major bull runs.
🧠 What the Market Is Saying
🧵 Miner Behavior
Post-halving, miners have faced tighter margins. Many have upgraded to more efficient ASICs or relocated to cheaper energy regions like Africa and Latin America. According to Coin Metrics, miner revenue stabilized in Q1 2025 at ~$3.6B, despite the reward cut.
“Miners are adapting by diversifying into AI data centers and optimizing operations.” — @Cointelegraph
🏦 Institutional Activity
Institutions are doubling down. In May 2025, Coinbase saw a $1B BTC withdrawal in a single day—its largest of the year—signaling long-term accumulation by hedge funds and corporates (TechStory).
“Corporate treasuries now hold over 200,000 BTC—4x more than all U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs combined.” — @Andr3Dragosch
🌍 Macroeconomic Trends
The U.S. dollar is weakening, and gold is outperforming Bitcoin YTD. But analysts like Ed Yardeni argue that Trump’s pressure on the Fed could lead to rate cuts, favoring BTC in the second half of 2025 (Benzinga).
“Bitcoin is shedding its punk status and moving into the mainstream.” — @SumitRoyETFs
📊 Key Levels to Watch
Support: $BTC has found a floor near $104,000–$106,000, with strong ETF inflows and whale accumulation at these levels (Analytics Insight)
Resistance: A breakout above $114,000 could trigger a 25% rally toward $143,000, according to Rosenberg Research (Yahoo Finance)
“Bitcoin needs to clear $114K to unlock the next leg up.” — @jennifersor
🔄 Altcoin Movement
Altcoins are lagging. As of July 2025, only 8% of altcoins are outperforming BTC—the lowest in five years (Cryptopolitan).
“Altcoins are in their deepest slump vs. BTC in over two years.” — @CryptoMichNL
🧠 Final Thoughts
Bitcoin’s halving has passed, but its effects are just beginning to ripple through the market. With institutional demand rising and supply tightening, the second half of 2025 could be explosive—if BTC clears key resistance.
Whether you’re a HODLer or a trader, now’s the time to stay sharp, stay informed, and stay ready.