Bitcoin marks a new milestone towards investor optimism: 98% of its supply is currently in profit, but this number implies not only strong hopes for the future but also warns of the possibility of large price swings in the short term.
Bitcoin supply in profit: signs of a bullish market
A growing profitability for Bitcoin dominates the scene, with the profit value skyrocketing from 87% to 98% between June 22 and the following Sunday, according to on-chain data. On Tuesday, about 96.7% of all Bitcoin was above the purchase price, confirming a bullish moment never seen before this year.
However, this euphoria situation also involves some risks. Historically, such high levels of profit supply correspond to periods of high volatility. Indeed, the potential for profit-taking increases, leading some traders to sell quickly and causing price corrections. Consequently, the market becomes more sensitive to sudden changes in sentiment.
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The realized profit/loss ratio reached a value of 2.8, up from 1.1 in less than a week and surpassing the alert threshold of 2.4. This represents an increase of 156.4%: a number that, according to Glassnode analysts, reflects the high confidence of Bitcoin holders, but also exposes the market to the risk of corrections if demand starts to weaken.
“` Institutional and retail: a confidence that strengthens the rally
In this scenario, there is renewed institutional participation. Investment funds and large-scale operators are once again accumulating and supporting the market, interpreting the trend as a sign of the asset's solidity. The "cautiously optimistic" momentum indicated by analysts is precisely fueled by the presence of new accumulation strategies from both individual investors and large organizations.
Moreover, the continuous flow of new capital generates a virtuous circle that keeps demand high and strengthens the climate of confidence. However, experts emphasize that this balance remains fragile: any signs of exhaustion in buying or a slowdown in momentum could trigger sudden corrections.
Bitcoin towards $200,000: rally and new horizons
Over 18 months, Bitcoin rises from the market lows in November 2022, recording a quick jump from $15,500 to around $107,000. This 590% rally builds a solid price structure, characterized by weekly higher highs and higher lows. A movement that, according to many experts, lays the groundwork for a possible unprecedented bullish breakout in the coming months.
Multi-year channel: breakout expected by analysts
A well-known analyst highlights how "Bitcoin is about to break a multi-year channel," with the chart showing the price approaching the upper part of this technical resistance. If this barrier is decisively overcome, the initial target may already be set at $140,000, leading many traders to speculate a projection towards the historical limit of $200,000 by the end of 2025.
This formation is not an ascending wedge.
Bitcoin is about to break a multi-year channel.
The next leg will be explosive.
Intermediate target: 140k.
Year-end target: 200k. pic.twitter.com/NkftUJUGeh
— Stockmoney Lizards (@StockmoneyL) June 30, 2025
The optimistic forecasts do not stop here: some estimates extend the trajectory to $250,000 by 2026, although these numbers remain subject to the essential condition of constant and sustained demand from bullish and bearish investors.
Demand as the key to Bitcoin's future
The crucial element indicated by analysts remains sustained demand. The Bitcoin rally indeed finds solid ground only if the flow of new buyers and capital from investors remains high. Therefore, if the momentum stops, it would be plausible to see even sharp corrections after such an intense profit-taking phase.
The most cited analysis models continue to indicate levels of great optimism. Glassnode highlights the market's vitality and new entries, but still advises caution: historically, a massive portion of the profit supply coincides with the approach of congestion zones and possible consolidations.
An excess of investors in profit could stimulate sudden sales and temporary price drops.
The target of $200,000 remains within reach, as long as institutional participation continues to be high.
Any signs of demand exhaustion should be interpreted as warning bells by traders, ready to mitigate risk in their portfolios.
Implications for investors: how to interpret the current phase
The situation of extremely high profitability pressures both retail and institutional investors. Many are considering whether to take profits now or continue accumulating, hoping for more increases towards $200,000. The choice is not simple, given the risk of increasing volatility that could redefine the landscape in just a few days.
It is essential to constantly monitor both trading volumes and the structure of open positions in the main trading markets. A potential increase in Bitcoin supply intended for sale could coincide with the first signs of a slowdown in the rally.
However, the overall sentiment remains optimistic. Increasingly, analysts share the view of a near future in which Bitcoin could consolidate its position among the top global financial assets, bolstered by institutional interest and the trend of accumulation by large market entities.
A look beyond the rally: risks, opportunities, and outlooks for Bitcoin
The impact of the recent bullish wave brings Bitcoin to the forefront of the global economy. The record profit supply testifies to a phase of great optimism, but also reminds us that such exuberant markets should be approached with caution. Investors, both professional and retail, will have to navigate between the temptation of immediate profit and the opportunity for long-term growth.
Looking to the coming months, Bitcoin appears ready for new challenges and opportunities. Those wishing to participate will need to stay informed, monitor on-chain dynamics, and assess the strength of demand. In a context that sees $200,000 as a possible horizon, maintaining a rational and analysis-driven approach represents the best strategy for navigating the new era of cryptocurrencies.
