From the current market information, Ethereum (ETH) is indeed facing significant pressure around $2,500, as reflected in the following aspects:
1. Technical resistance and psychological thresholds
- $2,500 is a key technical and psychological resistance level. Recently, ETH has made multiple attempts to break through this level but has not been able to hold effectively, indicating strong selling pressure and profit-taking demand at this point.
- According to technical analysis, ETH needs to break through $2,542 with volume to further test higher resistance levels of $2,665–$2,719; otherwise, it may fall back to support levels of $2,466–$2,403.
2. Market capital and position structure
- Although whales (those holding 10K–100K ETH) have been continuously accumulating recently (net increase of 670,000 ETH in the past 9 days), smaller holders have been reducing their positions (a decrease of 110,000 ETH during the same period), indicating cautious sentiment among retail investors.
- The funding rate in the futures market has turned negative, short positions have increased, and spot trading volume has declined, further intensifying the downward pressure around $2,500.
3. On-chain data and investor behavior
- The supply of ETH on exchanges has dropped to its lowest level since August 2024, indicating that some investors are choosing to hold long-term rather than sell, but this may also mean reduced liquidity, making prices more susceptible to short-term selling pressure.
- Recent on-chain data shows increased distribution activities between short-term holders (STHs) and long-term holders (LTHs), indicating that some investors are taking profits, further suppressing the price's upward potential.
4. Macroeconomic and regulatory environment
- Global macroeconomic uncertainties (such as decreased attractiveness of dollar alternatives and geopolitical tensions) and regulatory pressure from the U.S. SEC on DeFi platforms have led to an overall reduction in market risk appetite, dragging down ETH as a high-risk asset.
- The high gas fee issue on the Ethereum network has also prompted some users to switch to other Layer 2 or alternative chains (such as Solana, Avalanche), weakening the demand support for ETH.
5. Short-term market sentiment and operational opportunities
- Despite the pressure, some analysts believe that a pullback below $2,500 could be a buying opportunity, especially against the backdrop of whales continuing to accumulate.
- If ETH can effectively break through $2,542 and hold, it may open up a new round of increases above $2,700; conversely, if it falls below $2,500, it may drop to the range of $2,350–$2,275.
Summary:
The current pressure on ETH around $2,500 mainly stems from technical resistance, differentiated funding structure, on-chain profit-taking behavior, and macro/regulatory uncertainties. In the short term, this level remains a key battleground for bulls and bears, and investors need to closely monitor signals of a breakthrough or breakdown to gauge the direction of subsequent trends.