SOL ETF Slaughterhouse: A bloody breakout under the siege of billions in capital
The world's first Solana spot ETF was approved for listing in Canada three months ago, and the U.S. market finally welcomes the first SOL ETF with staking functionality—REX Shares and Osprey Funds team up to launch an innovative structural product, bypassing SEC regulations by directly appearing with a C-corp structure. Upon the announcement, SOL soared 7% instantly, piercing $161, like a shot of adrenaline into the market's arteries. But this is just the prelude to a bloody battle.
ETF Blade Drawn: Brief Revelry and Regulatory Strangulation
Canadian regulators approved four financial institutions to issue Solana spot ETFs as early as April 2025, allowing them to directly hold SOL and initiate staking functions, with expected annual yields of 7%-10%, surpassing Ethereum's 4%-5%. This move directly pierced the last barrier between traditional finance and public chain assets, with SOL's price soaring 25% before the news and network trading volume surging to a historical peak of 355 million transactions.
The U.S. market, however, is deeply trapped in the regulatory meat grinder. The SEC has repeatedly delayed SOL ETF approvals, dragging the decision deadline for Grayscale's Solana Trust to October, while similar ETFs like Polkadot and Ripple are also facing a life-or-death situation in June. Although Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas raised the probability of SOL ETF approval this year to 90%, the regulatory sword remains suspended— the SEC has previously deemed SOL as 'unregistered securities,' a stain akin to a guillotine hanging over its neck that could fall at any moment.
Although REX Shares' C-corp structured ETF bypasses the SEC, it comes with a tax poison: dividends must undergo both corporate tax and shareholder tax, reducing its appeal to institutions. Grayscale's Solana Trust has only raised $75 million in two years, compared to its Ethereum Trust's $10 billion scale before the ETH ETF launch, which is truly devastating—this signals that the SOL ETF may become an appetizer for the capital slaughterhouse.
On-chain Battle Royale: The Flood of Unlocking and DApp Betrayal
The Solana ecosystem is sliding towards bloody self-cannibalism. In the next two months, $585 million worth of staked SOL will unlock and flood the market, equivalent to an average daily selling pressure of nearly $10 million. More deadly is that leading DApps have turned against: the token-launch platform Pump unilaterally dumped $404 million SOL to exchanges in 2025, comparable to a meticulously planned on-chain purge.
The network's fundamentals are bleeding and collapsing. SOL's annualized fund rate has fallen below 10%, and leveraged longs are gasping for breath; network revenue has plummeted over 90% since January, and the meme coin frenzy cannot conceal the downturn. Meanwhile, Ethereum L2 collaborates with Robinhood and Coinbase to raid tokenized stock trading, directly penetrating Solana's high-performance hinterland— the battle for public chain supremacy has evolved into a bloody close-quarters fight.
Price Meat Grinder: A hundred billion fantasy and a $200 bone wall
Analysts are engaged in a bloody gamble over SOL price predictions. Standard Chartered asserts that SOL, XRP, and other ETFs will collectively pass in 2025, pushing SOL to break the thousand yuan mark; GSR boldly claims that if it attracts 5% of the funds flowing into Bitcoin ETFs (about $20 billion), SOL will triple. Technical analysts shout that the symmetrical triangle breakout aims for $1000, with JPMorgan estimating first-year capital inflows of $3-6 billion.
But the short sellers' sharp knife has reached the throat. On-chain selling pressure combined with network revenue collapse has kept SOL's price trajectory locked with ETH and BNB even after ETF news, exposing signs of fatigue in its rise. Bloomberg data ruthlessly bursts this illusion: if SOL were to replicate Bitcoin ETF's fund scale, it would need to absorb $460.2 billion in new market value, while the current total market value of SOL is only $86.7 billion—this means a fivefold bloodbath would be needed to support the thousand yuan myth. In the short term, $200 has become a blood-stained iron bone wall.
Ultimate Hunting Ground: The Logic of Survivor Counterattacks
In the regulatory noose of ETFs, the blood waterfall of unlocked sell-offs, and the cutthroat competition in technology, SOL investors must become jungle snipers:
Staking Yield Bloodbath: Lock in 7%-10% annualized staking yield from Canadian ETFs to hedge market volatility;
The Regulatory Blade Dances: Betting on the SEC's Grayscale approval window in October, Polymarket shows an 82% probability of passing this year;
Ecosystem Amputation for Survival: Monitoring DEX trading volume (Solana's daily trading volume of $60 million crushes Ethereum), capturing the real blood-generating ability of DeFi.
As the compliance light of ETFs shines into Solana's battlefield, the price candlestick has soaked in the blood of bulls and bears—only those wielding the blade of staking, piercing through the regulatory fog, can carve out tokenized gold from the billion-dollar meat grinder.
Focus on Shence, peel back the surface to see the essence, and take you through the bull and bear markets!#Solana质押型ETF $SOL