The market is always right. Its movements are not wrong; it's just following its own path. The only mistakes will be made by the traders themselves. The market rewards only those who have correct logic and can keep up with its pace.
Hello everyone, I am trader Gege. Continuing from last time, this week's important macro event is on Thursday, with non-farm data to be released. The US stock market is closed on Friday. The media is starting to create hype; regardless of the data, Trump will criticize old Powell again. Over the weekend, Trump also stated that interest rates should be cut by more than half, controlled at 1%-2% (currently it is 4.25%). Old Powell's stance is to wait for the market to test the S policy for a while before deciding. Regarding the deadline for the S policy, Trump's statement is nonsense, indicating that there is no need to extend it, but it can also be extended. We should not take these news too seriously; just have a mindset of watching the show. The current market trend relies on technicals for short-term trading, as BTC's high-level fluctuations are very confusing.
Back to the point, following the old rule on Monday, let's first discuss the weekly level. The weekly candle closed as a solid bullish candle and broke through MA7, which feels a bit unclear; it's just momentum. It's a strong bullish trend, but looking at the overall candlestick pattern, the current price is near the previous high resistance area. In such a situation, the main players can easily dig pits and set traps. Therefore, my suggestion is to handle short-term trades with caution and increase risk control levels. A simple corresponding strategy is to enter if it does not break the MA7 on a pullback and does not break the previous high. Additionally, enter if it temporarily breaks the previous high and then recovers. If the market effectively breaks the above levels, wait and observe for a better opportunity. This is the weekly level analysis.
At the daily level, BOLL is in a contraction state, focusing on the current K-line closing situation. If the status quo is maintained, then entries can be made below the upper BOLL band. The short-term important support at the daily level is near the middle band, corresponding to a price around 106000. Currently, market traders seem to have some doubts; it is reasonable to look for a pullback in the resistance area, but the downward momentum is limited. It drops a bit and then recovers immediately, so we still need to wait for the market to become clearer. Of course, under the premise of good risk control, I believe that participation is warranted; even if mistakes occur, as long as they are within one's expectations, it is okay. I won't go into detail about the 4H level today; the morning saw a rise and then a drop back, with fluctuations up and down. It is suggested to rely on the upper and lower BOLL bands for reference. If the players are up to something, I estimate that before the non-farm data is released, there won’t be a significant market movement.
The weekly level for ETH is currently still testing MA7. If it cannot stabilize, it will test the middle band again; conversely, it will test near MA60. The daily level has not broken through the middle band and is temporarily supported by MA7 and MA60 below. Here, we can observe that the K-line's horizontal support is at the 2400 level, which is an important short-term support area. The short-term idea can similarly refer to BTC, temporarily relying on the 4H BOLL range to enter.
BTC Short-term: 108000-108600 short, 106600-106300 long, looking at 1500 USD.
ETH Short-term: 2490-2510 short, 2400-2420 long, looking at 80-100 USD.
Suggestions are for reference only; enter the market with proper risk control. Manage your profit and stop-loss space independently, and specific strategies should be consulted at the time.
Alright, friends, we have to say goodbye until next time. I wish everyone to do better and have a bright future in the crypto space! More real-time advice is sent internally. Today's brief update ends here. For more real-time advice on BTC, find Gege.
Written by: I am trader Gege, a friend willing to accompany you on your rise again.
