June 30
ETH Evening Technical Analysis:
Based on the theory of volume-price relationship and capital game, the probability of ETH rising significantly tonight. The performance of the U.S. stock market at the opening will become a key trigger point. If positive news is released, the short positions formed in the resistance zone of 2465 - 2480 USD will trigger stop-loss mechanisms due to rapid price increases, resulting in buying pressure from short covering, which will create a 'short squeeze' effect. This capital replenishment resonating with incremental funds is like 'refueling in mid-air', providing strong momentum for price increases.
From the validation of support level effectiveness, if the main force intends to accumulate at low levels and switch the trading range, last night’s trading window fully possessed the technical conditions to test the 2350 - 2300 USD range and trigger strong liquidations of long positions. However, the actual price action shows that effective support was formed around 2377 USD, with a clear vacuum zone of chips below this area. According to Glassnode's on-chain data, the current open contract volume in this range has decreased by 63% compared to the previous week, indicating that the short selling force has significantly weakened.
Combining chip distribution with historical comparisons, during the conflict period of 2550 - 2110 USD, the current major players still hold about 42% of the chips in this range. This portion of locked chips effectively reduces the market supply, forming a natural price support. From a technical perspective, if there is a sustained increase in volume for 3 consecutive hours, combined with a macro environment of U.S. stocks opening high and rising, ETH is expected to break through the key psychological level of 2600 USD; even if U.S. stocks open low and rise, it may form a classic right shoulder structure of a head and shoulders bottom, with the left shoulder's high of 2668 USD potentially becoming a short-term upward target. It is recommended to pay close attention to whether the hourly increase can be sustained in the range of 8 - 10%, as the stability of this indicator will strongly validate the above bullish logic.
