🎯 PROBABILITY-BASED OUTCOME MAP

Scenario Description Probability Notes

🟢 Bullish Bounce Price holds above $107,200 and pushes toward $108,500 and maybe $110K+ 60% ✅ Most likely if BTC holds above 107k — backed by rising structure + near liquidity grab zone

🟠 Fakeout + Pullback Brief push to $107,800–108,200 then rejection back to $106,800 25% ⚠️ Common when volume is low or breakout is front-run by sell pressure

🔴 Breakdown Below $107K BTC dips under 107k to hunt stop-losses and test $106,500 or $106,000 15% ❗ Only likely if sudden bearish news hits, or major whale sells trigger cascading stops