Quick introduction: Bitcoin in brief
Bitcoin (BTC) - the leading cryptocurrency that launched the decentralized finance revolution in 2009 - continues to dominate as the "digital gold" thanks to its scarcity (21 million units maximum) and increasing institutional and governmental adoption. Currently trading around 105,000 dollars (June 29, 2025), it is preparing for a critical July amidst economic storms and bold bullish forecasts.
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July volatility analysis: Driving factors
1. U.S. economic data:
- Job reports (July 5): Weak employment data (only 37,000 new jobs in May) reinforce expectations of a rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve. If the next report shows a slowdown, Bitcoin could rise to 120,000 dollars due to capital fleeing traditional assets.
- Inflation index: Its rise supports Bitcoin as a "safe haven", especially with declining investor confidence in fiat currencies.
2. Institutional liquidity:
- ETF funds: Attracted about 5.24 billion dollars in May 2025, supporting liquidity and reducing short-term volatility.
- Exchange reserves: Their decline to 2.68 million BTC (compared to 80.65 million outside) indicates a shift towards long-term storage, limiting supply and exerting upward pressure on the price.
3. Political support:
- Trump's administration policies supporting cryptocurrencies (like creating a "strategic reserve for Bitcoin") could push the price to 150,000 dollars.
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Price forecast: Up or down?
- Bullish scenario (70% probability):
- Breaking resistance at 115,000 dollars with weak employment data, headed towards 120,000–125,000 dollars by the end of July.
- The "bullish flag" pattern on the charts reinforces this path.
- Bearish scenario (30% probability):
- Positive economic shock (such as strong employment reports) could lead the Fed to delay rate cuts, pushing the price down to 102,000 dollars.
- Security breaches or sudden regulatory tightening in major countries (like China) could trigger short-term sell-offs.
Illustrative chart: Technical forecasts for Bitcoin's path in July 2025 (Source: Bitfinex)
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Proposed trading deals: July strategies
| Trade | Entry Point | Profit Target | Stop Loss | Success Rate |
|-------------------------|------------------|----------------|--------------|-------------|
| Spot Purchase | 105,000–107,000 | 120,000 | 99,500 | 65% |
| Leveraged Breakout | Above 115,000 | 125,000 | 111,000 | 55% |
| Hedging with gold | Buy BTC + Sell gold futures | Risk balance | - | 70% |
> Note: Leverage magnifies risks! Use it only if the RSI indicator (currently at 55) is above 60.
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Long-term forecasts: The road to 200,000?
- 2025–2026:
- Adoption of a gold-backed payment system by BRICS countries (July) could push the price to 200,000 dollars.
- The IMF's approval to include Bitcoin in the basket of reserve assets (expected September) could raise it to 525,000 dollars.
- 2030:
The shift towards "decentralized finance" (DeFi) and layer 2 technologies (like the Lightning Network) could raise the market capitalization of cryptocurrencies above that of gold.
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July summary: Opportunities in a sea of volatility
July 2025 is a pivotal month for Bitcoin, as economic data (especially U.S. jobs) and monetary policies will determine its short-term direction. While technical and institutional indicators point to a rise towards 120,000 dollars, caution is warranted against any geopolitical or regulatory shocks.
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Disclaimer
This article does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and subject to unprecedented risks. Before making any investment decision:
1. Do your own research.
2. Consult a licensed financial advisor.
3. Do not invest money you cannot afford to lose.
> Share your opinion: Do you agree with the 120,000 dollar Bitcoin forecast for July? What’s your strategy for this summer?
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Sources: Bitpanda, Finance Magnates, CoinCodex, Argaam.
