1. The independence of the Federal Reserve is not fundamentally threatened
    The Bank for International Settlements explicitly stated that Trump's criticism of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions does not threaten its independence. This judgment is based on the Federal Reserve's long-standing monetary policy framework of 'targeting inflation and employment', as well as Powell and other officials' repeated emphasis that 'policy decisions are based on data rather than political pressure'. For example, when Powell responded to Trump's call for rate cuts in January 2025, he stated: 'The public should trust that we will continue to focus on using our tools to achieve our goals,' and refused to comment on the president's remarks. Although Trump attempted to influence Federal Reserve policy through executive orders (such as eliminating diversity-related content), the core interest rate decision-making mechanism remains independent.

  2. Increased uncertainty in the global economy
    The current global economy is facing multiple challenges:

    • Trade fragmentation: The IMF predicts that if trade barriers continue to rise, the annual global GDP growth rate could drop to 3% by 2028, far below historical averages. Policies like 'reciprocal tariffs' and technological decoupling implemented by the U.S. have exacerbated the risk of supply chain disruptions; for example, after Trump announced reciprocal tariffs in April 2025, global foreign exchange market volatility increased by 30%.

    • Debt risk: The ratio of global government debt to GDP has surpassed 100%, and financing costs for emerging market countries have risen by 2-3 percentage points due to interest rate hikes in the U.S. and Europe, increasing the risk of a debt crisis.

    • Geopolitical conflicts: Conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine conflicts have driven up energy prices, with oil prices expected to rise by 40% in 2025 compared to 2023, further intensifying inflationary pressures.

  3. Fluctuations in the dollar exchange rate do not show systemic risks
    Although the dollar index fell below 99 in June 2025 (the lowest since April 2022), the Bank for International Settlements believes that there are no 'worrisome signs' yet. Reasons include:

    • Continued demand for safe-haven assets: The dollar accounts for over 50% of global trade settlements, far exceeding the euro (20%) and the yuan (3%).

    • Interest rate spread support: Although the Federal Reserve may end its interest rate hike cycle, dollar deposit rates remain higher than those in the eurozone (-0.5%) and Japan (-0.1%).

    • Stable market expectations: Research from CICC shows that although the interest rates on dollar wealth management products have declined due to expectations of rate cuts, the narrowing of the interest rate spread (from 4% to 2%) has not triggered large-scale capital outflows.

  4. Core risks of protectionism and trade fragmentation
    The impact of trade fragmentation on the global economy far exceeds that of exchange rate fluctuations:

    • Rising costs: WTO estimates that a 10% increase in trade barriers will lead to a 1.5% rise in global commodity prices, with consumers in low-income countries being the most affected.

    • Investment shrinkage: The restructuring of global supply chains in 2023 resulted in a 12% decrease in multinational direct investment, weakening the technology spillover effect in developing countries.

    • Divergent growth: The IMF predicts that if technological decoupling and trade fragmentation overlap, the GDP of some countries may shrink by 12%, further widening the income gap between developing countries and developed economies.

Conclusion:
The assessment by the Bank for International Settlements indicates that the independence of the Federal Reserve remains resilient at the institutional level, but the global economy is facing threefold challenges of trade fragmentation, high debt, and geopolitical conflicts. Short-term fluctuations in the dollar exchange rate do not pose a systemic risk, but the rise of protectionism may impose long-term constraints on global economic recovery through supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures. Policymakers need to prioritize alleviating trade tensions through multilateral cooperation (such as WTO reform and RCEP expansion) while promoting structural reforms like digital currencies and green finance to enhance the resilience of the global financial system.