#USCorePCEMay PCE Core US – Data Recap May 2025

Core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) – the inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve – for May 2025 is as follows:

🔹 Core PCE YoY (Year over Year):

+2.6% (compared to the expected 2.7%)

↘️ Lower than projections, indicating cooling inflation.

🔹 Core PCE MoM (Month over Month):

+0.1% (compared to the expected 0.2%)

🧊 Soft monthly increase, indicating moderation.

🔹 Headline PCE YoY:

+2.5% (in line with projections)

📊 In accordance with market expectations.

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📉 Market Implications:

✅ Dovish signal for the Fed — adding support for speculation of interest rate cuts by the end of this year.

💵 Dollar Index slightly weaker.

📈 Stocks and Gold may benefit as inflation pressures ease.

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🧠 What is Core PCE?

Core PCE excludes volatile food and energy prices and reflects underlying inflation trends — key for Fed interest rate decisions.