Looking at the prices of second-hand houses and rental prices, it is evident that since the China-US trade war in 2018, employment and income have not improved and have remained in a downward phase. Since rental prices do not involve much financial leverage and are essentially cash transactions, they are closely related to employment opportunities and income levels, clearly reflecting employment and income.

From 2020 to 2021, there was a brief recovery in rental prices. During that time, other countries around the world were in the pandemic phase, with severe production capacity shortages, but the government was distributing a lot of money, leading to strong consumption capacity. China experienced a relatively good employment phase. However, with the lockdowns in 2022 and a brief recovery after reopening, the downward phase began again six months later.

Housing prices are also quite clear, reaching their last peak in 2021. They started to decline in 2022, had a slight rebound in 2023, and then began a significant drop over the next two years. At the end of last year, there was a slight rebound, but in the last two months, prices have started to decline again. The rebound was more pronounced in new housing, while there was basically no rebound in second-hand houses.

According to domestic control, this household balance sheet should not end without a decade-long adjustment. From 2021 to 2031, there is still a long way to go.