Hey everyone! 👋 Today, we're diving into the US Core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) data for May 2025, which is about to drop on June 27, 2025, at 08:30 ET ⏰. This data is super important because it's the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, excluding food and energy prices 📊.
What's the Forecast? 🤔
According to the forecasts, the Core PCE is expected to rise by 0.1% month-over-month, which is the same pace as April 📈. On a year-over-year basis, the annual core inflation rate is forecast at +2.6%, up from +2.5% in April 📊. Now, you might be wondering what this means. Well, a +0.1% MoM move signals subdued inflation, while +2.6% YoY is modestly above the Fed's 2% target but relatively contained 🌡️.
What Does This Mean for the Fed and the Market? 📊
The Core PCE data guides the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, so this report is crucial 📈. With inflation steady but slightly above target, officials will weigh the case for patience versus rate cuts 🤔. Some Fed governors are open to rate cuts as early as July if inflation remains tame, though the broader consensus leans toward a September move 📅.
What to Watch for in the Report 🔍
When the report comes out, here are a few things to keep an eye on:
1️⃣ Confirmation or deviation from the +0.1% MoM and +2.6% YoY forecasts 📊.
2️⃣ Fed commentary afterward—higher inflation could delay rate cuts; lower readings could trigger speculation on earlier easing 💬.
3️⃣ Comparison to headline PCE, which is expected at +0.1% MoM and +2.3% YoY 📈.
Stay Tuned! 📺
We'll be keeping a close eye on the official release and bringing you the latest updates 📱. Stay informed, and let's see how the market reacts to this crucial data point 📊!
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Want More? 🤔
Let me know if you want the exact released figures once available or how traders and Fed officials are framing this data 📊. We'll be here to guide you through it all 👋!