3. Long-Term Perspective: A Digital Safe Haven?
Devaluation of Fiat Currencies: Some analysts argue that, in the longer term, if a serious global conflict were to cause a massive devaluation of fiat currencies (due to money printing to finance wars or economic crises), Bitcoin could, paradoxically, act as a "store of value" or "digital gold." Its limited supply and decentralized nature would make it attractive compared to currencies that could lose purchasing power. We have seen historical cases (such as the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022) where, after an initial drop, Bitcoin recovered and even outperformed traditional assets in subsequent months.
Maturity of the Asset: There are signs that the Bitcoin market is maturing. During the recent Israel-Iran tensions, some data suggested that Bitcoin's volatility was lower than that of some major U.S. stocks. This could indicate that a portion of the market is beginning to view Bitcoin with greater stability in times of crisis, although not yet as a consolidated store of value at the level of gold.
Decentralized Finance (DeFi) and Stablecoins: In scenarios of instability, decentralized finance and stablecoins (cryptocurrencies linked to fiat currencies) could gain relevance as tools for transferring value and navigating possible capital controls or sanctions, offering alternatives to traditional financial systems.