A war with Iran could, and has already shown to, have a significant impact on the value of cryptocurrencies. The cryptocurrency market, although sometimes presented as 'uncorrelated' to traditional financial markets, is susceptible to geopolitical events, especially those that create global uncertainty and affect commodity prices.
1. Initial Reaction: Risk Aversion and Price Decline
Risk Asset Behavior: In the short term and in the face of an initial escalation of tensions or a direct conflict, cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, tend to be perceived as risk assets. Investors, in times of panic and uncertainty, often liquidate positions in more volatile assets and seek refuge in assets traditionally considered safer, such as gold, U.S. Treasury bonds, or the dollar.
Recent Impact: In fact, during the recent tensions between Israel and Iran in June 2025, Bitcoin experienced notable declines (for example, dropping below $100,000 USD temporarily after certain attacks). Ethereum and other altcoins also saw more pronounced decreases. This demonstrates that the immediate market response of crypto to geopolitical uncertainty is a sell-off.
2. Impact Through the Energy Market
Oil Prices: Iran is a key player in the global oil market, and the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route for oil transport, is under its influence. A war in the region could severely disrupt global oil supply, leading to a drastic increase in crude prices.
continuing in the next post