📅 On June 26, 2025, President Trump announced a trade framework with China — tentatively signed, but still awaiting final clearance by both him and President Jinping.
📌 Deal Highlights:
💰 55% U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports
🔁 China’s tariffs on U.S. goods fixed at 10%
🧲 Rare earths & magnets supplied up front by China
🎓 Educational exchange continues: Chinese students retained in U.S. universities
🕊️ Built upon the May “Geneva truce”, which paused steep tariffs (145% U.S., 125% China)
🧩 What’s Included (per NYT’s “What’s In and Not In”):
🇺🇸 China to buy extra U.S. goods & services, especially agricultural products like soybeans — although terms lack detailed enforcement clauses
📜 Commitment to stronger IP protection and forced tech transfer curbs, though no binding enforcement mechanisms are outlined
🚫 No mention of Chinese state subsidies for its industries or limits on state-owned enterprises — a big omission
🧾 What’s Missing?
🧨 No rigorous monitoring/enforcement plan defined — unclear how disputes will be handled
🔁 Commercial subsidies and State Owned Enterprise (SOE) support remain unaddressed, pushing major issues into future phases
⚠️ Risks & Uncertainties:
📜 Final form still sketchy— no signatures, enforcement, or punishments outlined
⚓ Economists caution that markets may still reel from partial/full implementation depending on follow-through
🌍 Port disruptions remain from prior tariff cycles
₿📈 Crypto Market Reaction & Volatility:
📉 Short-term dips in BTC and altcoins often occur as risk aversion eases and capital shifts to equities
💵 A softer dollar post-announcement supports crypto rallies — markets treat dollar weakness as crypto-friendly
🔄 Bitcoin surged to ~$105k after May truce, but pulled back — a classic “buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news” scenario
📊 Ongoing volatility expected — Binance analysis shows crypto reacts sharply to tariff headlines
🛡️ Longer-term potential: if the deal holds, trade stability may bring institutional crypto inflows and support Trump’s 2025 crypto-friendly initiatives (e.g., Strategic Bitcoin Reserve)
📝 Quick Fire Summary
🔒 In ✅: Tariff framework, rare earths, IP protections, U.S. purchases
❌ Out: Enforcement mechanisms, subsidy reform, SOE limits
📉 Crypto outlook: Expect volatility — initial dips followed by potential bounce if trade optimism holds