Trump's tariff policy may push the US into a recession — but the dollar will not be replaced, The American economist Paul Krugman believes that the United States may be pushed into a recession due to the tariff policy of President Donald Trump. Winner of the equivalent of the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2008, Krugman sees Trump’s measures as a huge setback, capable of causing inflation to soar. At the annual Anbima event, the economist stated that the world is going through the moment of greatest uncertainty in recent years. Krugman believes that the price increase resulting from the tariffs will be passed on to consumers and that it is still early to observe the effects of the policy. The economist said that the inflationary process takes time, as demonstrated during the pandemic. "It takes time for a ship to leave Shanghai and arrive in the US, and even longer to reach Rotterdam. But there is evidence of a peak of inflation in the American economy soon," said Krugman during the Anbima Summit 2025, which took place this Wednesday (25) in São Paulo. The specialist also stated that he does not see the whole world going through a crisis of globalization, but rather a crisis of US leadership as the commander of the international system. Dollar In relation to the dollar, Krugman emphasized that the global depreciation of 10% symbolizes the loss of confidence of international investors, since the tariffs should have raised the currency. The scenario was compared to the pattern of emerging economies, such as Brazil and Argentina. Despite the moment of uncertainty, the economist ruled out the possibility of the dollar being replaced in the international scenario by another currency, since Europe is fragmented and China has a stricter capital control.