🔍 Why PEPE is crashing even while BTC s climbing

1. Correlation is weak and conditional

PEPE and BTC sometimes rise together during broad crypto rallies—but PEPE’s moves heavily depend on retail/social hype and whale behavior, not Bitcoin's macro strength .

2. Structural breakdown & technical trends

PEPE has recently fallen below key technical levels (e.g., 50‑day & 200‑day moving averages). It’s now near long-term support zones like the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at BTC a bearish setup .

Momentum indicators (RSI, MACD) are weak, with downward bias confirming the pressure .

3. Whale accumulation, but profit-taking

Despite the crash, on-chain data show that whales and “smart money” are accumulating—exchange supply is low, and smart money holdings jumped 145% this month .

Yet, short-term traders have booked profits post-BTC rally, rotating capital back into BTC—a classic altcoin bleed effect.

4. Macro-event & war dynamics

BTC is benefiting from at least some flight-to-safety and institutional inflows amid global tensions, but altcoins like PEPE are hit by risk-off sentiment—even more so when war events inject uncertainty.

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🛠 Interpretation of the visuals

First image: PEPE recovering past support but still below major MAs.

Second image: Technical pattern shows potential bounce at support, but failure likely leads lower.

Third image: Whales accumulating, hinting at a future rebound once macro aligns.

Fourth image: Side-by-side BTC–PEPE correlation analysis—shows loose, not perfect coupling.

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🧭 What to watch next

Trigger Impact

BTC extends rally Could create an extended risk-on window → lifts PEPE

PEPE holds $0.0000105–0.0000110 May signal base forming and rebound opportunity

On-chain whale flows increase Positive sign—large holders preparing for next pump

Social hype returns Memecoin pumps often start from renewed buzz

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📌 Summary

Though BTC is rallying, PEPE's technical breakdown, profit-taking, and war-driven risk aversion are suppressing its price.

However, whales are accumulating, reducing supply, which could set the stage for PEPE to regain strength—particularly if BTC maintains its bullish tempo.

Watch the $0.0000105–$0.0000110 zone and any uptick in social media hype or big-money accumulation.

Let me know if you want the latest technical chart or deeper on-chain analysis!