Today we discuss a major piece of news—Guotai Junan International has officially obtained approval from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission to upgrade its existing securities trading license to provide virtual asset trading services. This means that traditional financial 'large brokerage firms' are officially entering the crypto asset field. The entire process is advancing rapidly.
You can review the timeline: on June 5, Hong Kong announced the opening of virtual asset contract trading, and just twenty days later, another major favorable policy was directly implemented. This series of actions is no longer exploratory but a clear and defined layout path.
Some may say: this policy is not aimed at mainland users, only applicable to overseas 'qualified investors', and the threshold is as high as 8 million Hong Kong dollars. These people may feel it does not concern them. But if you look further, you will understand that the real benefit lies not in the surface trading rights but in 'pricing power' and 'the reconstruction of the financial system'.
Let's first take a look at who Guotai Junan is. If you penetrate its equity structure, you will find that the two major shareholders are the Shanghai State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission and the Shenzhen State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, holding about 70% in total. What does this mean? It means that the national team is stepping in.
Traditional financial big players are starting to enter this game of digital currency, and the signals released are far more than just 'can trade'; they represent a whole set of monetary and asset pricing systems that are about to be restructured.
As we discussed before, the reason Hong Kong is accelerating the introduction of virtual asset trading, including contracts for BTC and ETH, is not to encourage retail speculation but to compete for the 'pricing power' represented by Bitcoin and other digital assets.
On the surface, it appears to be about policy internationalization and compliance channel construction; in essence, it is about creating a legal channel for the Hong Kong dollar to enter the digital asset market.
In the past, when we wanted to use Hong Kong dollars to buy BTC, most of the time we could only do so through gray channels or by going around the US dollar. Now it’s different; the Hong Kong dollar can be directly used in regulated digital asset exchanges to participate in on-chain asset pricing. Behind this step is the recovery of pricing sovereignty and a leap in the monetary system.
If you zoom out to the macro level, you will find that Hong Kong is rapidly advancing the entire on-chain financial system. From stablecoin legislation to the approval of spot ETFs, to the construction of compliant licensed exchanges and wallet ecosystems, and finally to state-owned brokerages stepping in, the entire ecosystem is rapidly taking shape.
We can clearly see that this is no longer just an issue of policy experimentation, but a stronghold for China’s future participation in global digital financial competition.
Why is Hong Kong advancing so quickly? The reason is very simple: this is a game of competition between currencies.
Think about it, now the US dollar has stablecoins. The Hong Kong dollar itself operates under a linked exchange rate system with the US dollar; essentially, you can understand the Hong Kong dollar as a 'coupon for US dollars', with both being highly bound.
But the problem lies here. Suppose you exchange 1 Hong Kong dollar for 1 US dollar, and then use that 1 US dollar to buy 1 USDT. Now you have a stablecoin in hand. The corresponding 1 US dollar behind this stablecoin is used by Tether to buy US Treasury bonds, flowing into the hands of the US Treasury, continuing to participate in market circulation.
At this point, there are two 'shadow US dollars' in the market: one is the USDT in your hand, and the other is the 1 US dollar in the Treasury's hands. It is equivalent to deriving two dollar assets from one Hong Kong dollar.
Here comes the question: the total amount of the Hong Kong dollar has not changed, while the 'usable liquidity' of the US dollar has expanded by half. What will this bring? Theoretically, the US dollar depreciates, and the Hong Kong dollar appreciates—this reflects an objective structure of currency supply and demand.
However, this 'appreciation' is not a good thing. For manufacturing countries, a currency surge means a loss of export competitiveness. Originally, a product exported for 100 yuan may now need to be sold for 200 yuan due to exchange rate changes, while your competitor can still sell it for 150 yuan. You either lower the price to zero profit or face a dramatic drop in sales. This outcome is catastrophic.
Therefore, Hong Kong must do one thing: also issue its own Hong Kong dollar stablecoin to hedge against the portion of 'shadow derivation' from the US dollar stablecoin.
For example, if USDT can be exchanged for Hong Kong dollars, but Hong Kong has not issued a Hong Kong dollar stablecoin, then it is 'you issue shadow currency, I use real money to back it up'. This is like giving it away for free. Over time, the credit and reserves of the Hong Kong dollar system will be continuously drained by the stablecoin, leading to systemic collapse.
It is precisely for this reason that the national team stepping in is imperative.
Can you imagine what the future currency market will look like? A Hong Kong dollar stablecoin + a US dollar stablecoin + a BTC + a bunch of RWA assets as anchors. Whoever first masters the trading rights and clearing channels of these assets will hold the initiative in the future digital economy.
If you do not participate in this game, you will be marginalized in the future global financial system. But if you participate rashly, you may face traps set by established financial capitals, such as uncontrolled exchange rates, capital flight, and economic fluctuations.
This is what we call the 'Impossible Trinity' of currency.
A country's monetary policy can only choose two of the following three options: exchange rate stability, free capital flow, and monetary policy independence. You cannot have all three.
Currently, the renminbi has chosen exchange rate stability and policy independence, sacrificing global circulation. The Hong Kong dollar sacrifices its monetary policy autonomy in exchange for global liquidity linked to the US dollar.
However, now, the 24-hour, global, and unrestricted nature of digital assets is amplifying the disadvantage of the Hong Kong dollar's 'pricing vacancy'.
For example, one day, Americans drive the price of Bitcoin to 1 million dollars using US dollars and USDT. If you, as a Hong Kong resident, did not participate, you can only passively accept this pricing and use Hong Kong dollars to bear this price. You cannot help but participate, but if you participate, you are passive. This means you have become a passive recipient of Bitcoin's asset inflation.
If you understand this, you will realize why Guotai Junan must step in—they are not here to make money from exchanges; they are here to compete for the pricing rights of digital assets in the next phase.
And behind this is the change in the exchange rate system, fiscal pressure, sovereign credit, and even the entire national strategy.
The development of stablecoins is essentially about 'defeating the US dollar with the US dollar'. It releases the debt burden while projecting the credit of the US dollar globally. And one day, when stablecoins = US Treasury bonds = US dollars, achieving a trinity, the Federal Reserve may no longer be the core of this system.
Who becomes the core? It becomes the issuer of stablecoins—a new 'monetary sovereignty unit'.
If that day really comes, whoever can master these new financial tools will gain new strategic sovereignty. If a country can issue stablecoins based on its own credit, it theoretically has a decisive advantage over private institutions.
But here comes the problem: stepping in means you must participate in market competition, and you will face the risks of financial attacks and capital manipulation. This is a double-edged sword game.
To summarize: Guotai Junan's approval is not simply about 'being able to trade cryptocurrencies'; it is laying the foundation for a larger battle for digital currency sovereignty.
It is a core fulcrum of the monetary system, sovereign credit, and financial defenses.
In the future, BTC may no longer experience drastic declines; instead, it will enter a more stable phase with the involvement of more national-level participants in an 'organized and bound' spiral upward phase.
If you are still hesitating and observing, please remember: the development of Bitcoin has entered its last golden decade. This is the last opportunity window for ordinary people to cross social classes by their own efforts.
By 2035, we may have already exited this market, and new players will find it difficult to enjoy opportunities like today.
But as long as you are still in the game, you still have the right to choose.