Recently, both the crypto and Hong Kong stock circles have been bombarded with a piece of news:#香港加密概念股
Guotai Junan International obtained the Hong Kong cryptocurrency trading license, and its stock price skyrocketed.

It looks explosive but is actually a routine. Looking closely, this wave is more like a remake of an old script combining emotions and short-term speculation, where the excitement outweighs the actual value.

🔍 1. This has little to do with the mainland.

First, the most critical point: it has no connection to mainland policies.
Many people easily confuse Hong Kong's licensing and the opening of the mainland market; in fact, these are two different things.

The issuance of licenses in Hong Kong has been going on for over a year, it's not a new thing, and it hasn't translated to mainland brokerage firms or trading channels.

📜 2. Not the first, licenses are no longer 'scarce'.

This wave seems to be packaged as a 'big news', but in fact, several brokerages have already obtained it:
PantherTrade under Futu and YAX from Tiger Brokers have long been approved, while Guotai Junan International is just a latecomer.

This 'theme' is no longer new in the market; the scarcity of information has long been exhausted.

💹 3. Small stocks + emotional speculation, it's not hard to drive up prices.

Guotai Junan International itself has a market value of just over HKD 10 billion, which is considered a small-cap stock with average liquidity.
Against this backdrop, hot money can easily push up prices by speculating on news.

So this wave of increase is more about 'emotional speculation' rather than 'fundamentals'.

🔁 4. Yet another 'old script repeated'.

Does that sound familiar?
Previously, US and A-shares played similar tricks, for example—

  • A certain company announced 'allocating Bitcoin as a reserve asset'.

  • A certain enterprise publicly integrated blockchain technology.
    Initially, a few firms could still manipulate emotions, but later a bunch followed suit and the market became immune.

The same old routine becomes tiresome when seen too often; this time it's just moving the script to the Hong Kong stock market.

🌍 The narratives that really impact the market still come from 'the US'.

If you look back at the big crypto bull markets over the past few years, where did the stories that really drove the bull market take place?

💡 Let me give you a few examples you must be familiar with:

  • Elon Musk tweeted + Tesla entered the market, Bitcoin soared.

  • Top asset management giants like Blackstone and BlackRock pushed for spot ETFs.

  • The US president voiced support for the crypto world, the entire family went 'all in meme'.

These events occurred in the center of global capital—the US stock market, which accounts for nearly half of the global market value.

In other words:
The narratives that are truly effective are supported by massive funds and policy directions.

🧨 Crypto speculation in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks = hot money rushing in and out.

Take a look at some recent 'crypto concept stocks' in A-shares:

  • From 1 to 7 in two days, a massive surge.

  • Then comes the typical 'high open low close, a mess left behind' script.

The speculation on crypto themes in the domestic market has actually been suppressed for a long time. Once there is a slight wind, funds ignite like a powder keg, but the essence is still driven by short-term emotions.

Big funds get the soup, retail investors pick up the pieces—classic ending.

🔐 Restrictions are increasing, and overseas channels are tightening.

Recently, many users have noticed:
The thresholds for opening Hong Kong and US stock accounts have increased again.
The regulatory direction hopes to keep funds as much as possible in the 'safe zone'—A-shares and the real estate market.

This also means: even if you are optimistic about overseas crypto narratives, it's not that easy to get in.

✅ To summarize in one sentence:

Guotai Junan International obtaining a license is indeed true, and the stock price surge is also real,
but this wave of good news is, after all, 'old wine in new bottles'.

No connection to the mainland, not the first to do it, strong speculative emotions, diminishing marginal effects of narratives,
It's lively but has limited long-term value.

What really ignites the market is never just a license,
but rather 'who is telling the story and who has real money to back it up.'

✍️ DYOR, manage risks well, and may everyone set sail in the crypto world! 🌊

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